US Economics Update Lower rates won’t prevent economic slowdown The sustained drop in Treasury yields since early November is one reason why we have upgraded our economic forecasts for 2020, but we do not think that will be enough to prevent economic growth... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: weak growth to prompt loosening from MAS The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its policy settings unchanged, but given the worsening outlook for the economy, we think it will loosen policy at its next meeting in October. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Recovery will stall in 2019, pick up next year Economic growth across Africa as a whole will remain weak in 2019 due to very poor performances from Nigeria and South Africa. Conditions will probably improve next year, but regional growth will be... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New Brexit deadline, new forecasts The second delay to Brexit, to 31st October 2019, and developments overseas have altered the assumptions that underpin our UK economic forecasts. As such, we have tweaked those forecasts. The main... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt policy easing We expect GDP growth across Emerging Asia to be very weak this year, with a number of countries set to grow at their weakest rates since the global financial crisis. A key drag will come from falling... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA tightening a double-edged sword for the ARS The Argentine central bank’s pledges to keep monetary policy tighter for longer have helped to stave off a run on the currency in recent weeks. But by keeping the economy weak ahead of October’s... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB will still need to do more to support the economy President Draghi’s comments at today’s press conference suggest that the ECB will announce the terms of the TLTRO-III programme in June, which we suspect will be more generous than previous TLTROs... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil producers to falter as Egypt strengthens We hold below-consensus growth forecasts for the Gulf States, where oil output cuts and renewed fiscal austerity will result in a sharp slowdown. We are, by contrast, relatively optimistic about the... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could the Fed’s interest rate projections be a mistake? The Fed began publishing interest rate projections submitted by FOMC participants as far back as 2012, but in the past seven years only one maverick official has ever forecast a cut in interest rates... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A further dovish shift from the Bank? During a speech this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz refused to commit to the possibility of further rate hikes and suggested that the neutral range was not a good target for investors to... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly More monetary easing still on the cards Markets no longer expect further monetary easing in China but we aren’t convinced. Headwinds to growth look set to resurface as support from fiscal front-loading wanes, at which stage the stimulus... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Policymakers to pause in April After making some fairly big changes in early March, the ECB will probably be happy to leave things as they are at next week’s meeting. President Draghi will have no choice but to give a downbeat... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB worrying about downside risks The account of the ECB’s 7th March monetary policy meeting makes gloomy reading. It confirms that policymakers were worried about downside risks to their growth and inflation forecasts, even though... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI delivers another pre-election gift The RBI has delivered another pre-election gift to the government by lowering rates at a second successive meeting. A low level of headline inflation provided justification for the move. But with core... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
