Japan Economics Weekly Emergency extension, more flexible JGB yield target While the government this week extended the state of emergency by a month in virus hotspots, with daily infections falling sharply and the start of the vaccine rollout imminent there is light at the... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today but committed to keeping policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. We no longer expect any more rate cuts, but markets are... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy outlook diverging The New Zealand unemployment rate fell in Q4 and our labour market suite showed an even sharper tightening in the labour market. That’s one reason why we don’t expect the RBNZ to cut rates and why we... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly The benefits and limitations of a “bad bank” The creation of a “bad bank” in India - for which plans were briefly discussed in the Budget announcement - would help restructure the loans of the most heavily-indebted firms and facilitate a clean... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to keep rates on hold until later this year The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to keep interest rates on hold at its first meeting of the year and, with inflation set to rise over the next 6-9 months, we think policymakers will keep rates... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Taper talk a prelude to bigger policy debate Talk of tapering in recent weeks has been premature and we suspect that most major central banks will keep up asset purchases at their current pace for the rest of the year. Assuming that tapering... 4th February 2021 · 15 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to keep its powder dry for now The Riksbank is highly likely to leave its repo rate and other policy settings on hold next Wednesday (10th February), but we expect it to beef up its asset purchase programme again before long. 3rd February 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack A heavy January hangover for trade After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19... 3rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may extend QE one more time We are more upbeat about the outlook for the economy than the Reserve Bank of Australia. But the RBA seems keen to err on the side of caution. With the latest extension of its QE programme already... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect loose monetary policy to keep a lid on bond yields The RBA’s decision earlier today to extend its bond purchases, despite considerable improvement in the economic outlook, is just the latest sign that major central banks are likely to take a much more... 2nd February 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may end QE by mid-year The RBA today upgraded its labour market forecasts but noted that the recovery remained dependent on “significant fiscal and monetary support”. Indeed, the Bank extended its Bond Purchase Program by... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation on the rise The jump in consumer prices in Q4 largely reflects price hikes for items whose prices are set by the government. Even so, underlying inflation is holding up better than we and the RBA had anticipated... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry’s balancing act, RBI’s opportunity For India watchers, next week will be one of the most important of the year. We think the Finance Ministry will attempt to demonstrate prudence in the Union Budget on Monday, though obfuscation of the... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
