Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why two cuts may not be enough As the economic outlook has softened the RBA is inching closer to a rate cut. The analyst consensus has now come around to our view and foresees two 25bp cuts by early next year. But we think that the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Mobile tariff cuts add to drag on inflation Inflation will probably turn negative yet again over coming months once we strip out of the impact of October’s sales tax hike. However, that partly reflects one-off price cuts that have been flagged... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea’s next move to be a cut The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% today. But, while it sounded less upbeat on the economy, we still think the BoK is too optimistic on the outlook for growth. With growth... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The solid employment gain in March doesn’t resolve the tension between weak activity and healthy labour market data. Our view is that the drag from the housing downturn will eventually win the upper... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Economic growth to remain weak GDP growth in the euro-zone is likely to be only slightly stronger this year than in the second half of 2018. Hopes for a sharp rebound in export demand will probably be disappointed, meaning that the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Policy on hold, but rate cuts coming The weakness of the recent business surveys suggests that the Bank of Canada will strike a dovish tone at its meeting next week. The Bank is unlikely to start talking about interest rate cuts just yet... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy faltered in early 2019 Retail sales figures for February added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in the first months of the year. Growth will probably pick up later this year, but it will remain weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to remain on the side lines While the tone of the incoming data has been a little more positive since the March meeting, we still expect GDP growth to slow sharply this year. However, many on the Board remain concerned about the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices. (Q1) The easing in headline inflation in Q1 increases the pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut rates at their next meeting in May. And with weak growth set to keep a lid on inflation, we think they will cut... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele’s legacy As CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term draws to a close, we’ve taken a look at how his controversial decisions worsened Nigeria’s recent economic crisis. Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s views on... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Argentina This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Argentina’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would convince the Fed to cut rates? The economy is still in stronger shape than it usually was when the Fed started cutting interest rates in the past. Based on the Fed’s previous behaviour, however, the economic slowdown that we expect... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Slower growth after the election Growth in India is likely to slow as policy tightens after the general election. Even so, it should still be the best performing major emerging economy in the coming years. 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weaker core inflation reinforcing Fed’s dovishness The March consumer and producer price inflation data released this week highlighted that underlying inflationary pressures continue to fade. That hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed, with the March FOMC... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish tone will need to be followed by action The ECB struck a moderately dovish tone at its policy meeting this week, but with economic growth still fairly slow it will need to follow its words with actions. Meanwhile, industrial production data... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stagnation in Sweden, Norges Bank hawkish Private sector production data for February, released this week, added to the evidence from other indicators that Swedish economic growth slowed sharply at the start of 2019. We think that the Rikbank... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
