Japan Economics Update Wider tolerance band wouldn’t signal tighter policy The Bank of Japan is likely to widen the tolerance band around its 10-year yield target next month. The last time this happened, many saw it – wrongly in our view – as a form of policy tightening. It... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but PBOC more hawkish Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged on Saturday. But monetary conditions have tightened in practice since the start of the year. We expect the PBOC to formalise the shift with... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish CBRT suggests Turkish lira may appreciate further The hawkish statement accompanying today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to keep its one-week repo rate on hold at 17.0% supports our view that the rally in the lira has further to run... 18th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Challenges of big central bank balance sheets are manageable One legacy of the pandemic is a huge expansion in central banks’ balance sheets. Fears that this will automatically boost inflation are overdone. So, too, are worries that central banks will provoke a... 17th February 2021 · 25 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to start raising rates later this year We forecast the Norges Bank to be the first advanced central bank to begin raising interest rates, in the second half of this year. This will further bolster the krone, which we expect to be the best... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch Bank to continue unwinding stimulus Economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have shown the New Zealand economy recovering at a remarkable pace. The case for further monetary stimulus is therefore weak. As such, we expect the Bank... 17th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The continued surge in growth of narrow measures of the money supply underline that the economy is awash with liquidity, but that will not trigger a surge in price inflation when growth in the broader... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s house prices will keep rising strongly The RBNZ is responding to the recent surge in house prices by reimposing and later tightening LVR restrictions on mortgage borrowers. The impact of LVR restrictions on the housing market has been... 11th February 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers will keep a lid on borrowing costs Indian yields rose significantly in the aftermath of the unexpectedly-accommodative Union Budget announcement but developments since - including a ramping up of open market operations - have helped to... 11th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Asset purchases set to divide opinions at the Riksbank This morning’s announcement that the Riksbank left its policy settings unchanged will have come as a surprise to no one. Policymakers are in no rush to raise the repo rate from zero, but there are... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will QE start costing the government money? There are fears that, by making the government’s debt servicing costs more vulnerable to short-term rises in interest rates, quantitative easing (QE) is storing up trouble for when Bank Rate rises... 10th February 2021 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Headline consumer price inflation returned to negative territory last month, but this was largely due to a shift in the timing of the Lunar New Year. In fact, producer price inflation turned positive... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Credit growth in China dropped back further last month due to a broad-based slowdown in both bank and non-bank lending. Credit is likely to continue decelerating as the PBOC focuses on reining in... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
