Canada Economics Update Bank unlikely to pull forward rate hike plans The Bank of Canada has signalled that it will wait until 2023 to raise interest rates and, despite our stronger forecasts for GDP growth, there are a few reasons why we expect it to stick to this... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Third lockdown unlikely to prompt more QE or negative rates The prospect of a rapid recovery in GDP in the second half of the year and a rebound in inflation to 2% suggests that the third COVID-19 lockdown won’t prompt the Monetary Policy Committee to launch a... 28th January 2021 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA shakeup, UAE banks, latest on COVID-19 The change of governor at the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) adds to the signs that the government will lean more heavily on SAMA to support its efforts to diversify investments and the Saudi economy... 28th January 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s Powell strikes dovish tone despite vaccines The Fed acknowledged in its post-FOMC meeting statement today that the economic recovery weakened in the final couple of months of last year, but balanced that near-term pessimism with greater... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the risks to Treasuries from future tapering It seems very unlikely that the FOMC will unnerve the bond market later today by signalling a tapering of its asset purchases (see here). But even when the time for such an announcement does come, we... 27th January 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Inflation expectations unlikely to lift gilt yields much 10-year gilt yields haven’t been significantly dragged higher by 10-year US Treasury yields because, unlike their US counterparts, break-even inflation rates in the UK have not been boosted by... 27th January 2021 · 8 mins read
RBI Watch Don’t rule out a rate cut Financial markets and analysts appear convinced that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday 5 th February, but we aren’t so sure. We think the recent sharp... 27th January 2021 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA may end QE in April While the Reserve Bank of Australia will present more upbeat forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and the labour market at its meeting on Tuesday 2nd February, we suspect it will still sound dovish... 27th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update High inflation limits CBN’s scope for easing, for now The recent rise in inflation appears to have stayed the hand of Nigeria’s central bank from delivering more monetary easing at today’s MPC meeting. But, as price pressures drop back towards the end of... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ to hike rates next year We now expect the RBNZ to tighten monetary policy in the years ahead as GDP growth, the labour market and inflation will be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated. We expect asset purchases to be... 26th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Labour market scarring may prompt extension of QE Our base case remains that the RBA will end quantitative easing in April. However, one risk to that forecast is the rising share of long-term unemployment. 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB not likely to accept tighter policy While yesterday’s ECB policy statement and press conference left many investors with the impression the Bank may be willing to tolerate higher peripheral bond yields, we doubt that this is the case... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to keep surprising to the upside Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen much faster than most had anticipated. And with the share of underemployed workers nearly back at pre-virus levels, the risk of widespread job losses after the... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The sharp rise in underlying inflation in Q4 is consistent with our view that the RBNZ will tighten policy in the years ahead. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
