Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. However, we still think that inflation will slow in the final months of this year... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ set to tighten in October, RBA in early-2023 The strong rise in New Zealand’s GDP in Q2 nearly returned output to its pre-virus path despite the headwinds from low net migration and the slump in foreign tourism. So while GDP plunged in Q3, we... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Telecoms lifeline, autos constraints, bank liquidity India's struggling telecoms firms were thrown a lifeline this week after parliament approved a four-year moratorium on dues owed to the government. One potential consequence is that telecoms firms are... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Struggling to generate inflation even now While inflation in most advanced economies is now well above central banks’ targets, it is still negative in Japan. This is largely due to idiosyncratic factors that should fade by the middle of next... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Slowing recovery eases pressure to hike The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled in August that it is getting closer to raising interest rates, but the gloomy tone of the recent news on the global and UK economies will have reduced the... 16th September 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Sri Lanka avoid default? Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch PM frontrunner Kono may favour sharper taper Dug in for an extended hold, the Bank of Japan won’t alter its major policy settings at its September meeting. Further ahead though, PM Suga’s successor – to be elected in two weeks’ time – may look... 16th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is high inflation here to stay in Latin America? Following a surge in inflation across the region this year, we think that headline rates are at, or close to, a peak in major Latin American economies. But strong underlying price pressures will... 15th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- What to expect from a monetary policy review We doubt that any independent review of Australia’s monetary policy framework would result in a change to the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. But the Bank could be forced to put more emphasis on house... 15th September 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Three points on banking sector liquidity Measures by the Reserve Bank to drain banking sector liquidity have caught attention over the past few days. But with liquidity still abundant, interbank rates at the very bottom of the rate corridor... 14th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions still loose barring LatAm Our financial conditions indices show that conditions remain loose by historic standards in most EMs. The key exception is Latin America, where conditions have tightened sharply this year due to... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers in focus The speech by Governor Tiff Macklem this week suggests that, when the Bank of Canada next tapers its asset purchases, it may do so by less than is commonly assumed. 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A look ahead to December’s ECB meeting Following yesterday’s comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Bank looks set to make crucial decisions about the future of QE at its December meeting. We suspect that it will end its net... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging signs in South East Asia Virus outbreaks across South East Asia are in retreat. Having taken a severe hit from the most recent Delta wave, economic recoveries in the region should now resume. Falling virus cases and reopening... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: BCRP stepping up pace of tightening Yesterday’s larger 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, delivered by Peru’s central bank (BCRP) suggests it is becoming increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. With inflation set to stay above the 1... 10th September 2021 · 3 mins read
