Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hospitalisations could pose risk to reopening New South Wales and Victoria look set to remain under heavy restrictions until the vaccinations thresholds can be met. But with cases and hospitalisations surging there is a risk that hospitals will... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch Slower purchase pace in sight, but rate hikes are not The ECB is likely to use next week’s meeting to prepare the ground for a very gradual reduction in asset purchases under the emergency PEPP. But, taking a leaf out of the Fed’s book, it will stress... 2nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update A summer catch-up The data released over the northern hemisphere summer break have suggested that economic recoveries in most countries have started to lose some steam. At the same time, while inflation is generally... 2nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest data show that growth in the main monetary aggregates is slowing even before the Fed starts tapering its monthly asset purchases, although it remains strong by historic standards. We’ll be... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank stepping on the brakes The surprise 75bp interest rate hike by Chile’s central bank late on Tuesday (which took the policy rate to 1.50%) underscores policymakers’ concerns about the inflation outlook. Our forecasts for the... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay the course The health situation in Australia continues to deteriorate, but the acceleration in the vaccine rollout means that lockdowns probably won’t last much longer. The Bank doesn’t believe that stepping up... 1st September 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Exports won’t come to the rescue in H2 Q2 GDP data released over the past month or so did not show a repeat of the across-the-board rises in exports seen in previous quarters, but the external sector still proved an important prop to GDP... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil at breaking point, Argentina’s SDRs, Chile pensions Brazil’s institutional crisis took a turn for the worse this week, and points to an environment in which fiscal risks will grow and the economic reform agenda will be put on the backburner. Elsewhere... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta spreads; consumption slows; Powell stalls The Delta-variant linked surge in coronavirus cases continues and has now spread well beyond just one or two southern states. Moreover, even in those southern states, particularly Florida, new case... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Survey synchronisation; NOK resurgence The sharp fall in the forward-looking Swiss investor sentiment indicator in August mirrored the pattern seen in the German Ifo. While sentiment was bound to soften sooner or later and Switzerland has... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reopening moving closer as vaccine rollout speeds up The easing of restrictions for vaccinated people in New South Wales announced today fell short of expectations but with the vaccine rollout accelerating, Australia’s lockdowns should end towards the... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures mount as activity rebounds Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3... 26th August 2021 · 16 mins read
US Economics Update Uncertainties surround QE taper timing and pace With the Delta-linked resurgence in coronavirus infections adding to the downside risks to economic growth and officials still split on exactly what qualifies as “substantial further progress” toward... 26th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB may not agree taper until December The account of the ECB’s July meeting confirms that a minority of Governing Council members objected to the dovish shift in the Bank’s interest rate guidance. Partly because of this, we now think the... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
