Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Hawkish central banks may still be still a headwind for EMs We think developed market (DM) monetary policy may be a threat to emerging market (EM) assets for some time yet. Note: Join our EM team on Thursday, 1 st September for their latest monthly online... 31st August 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political risks back in the spotlight The region faces a busy political calendar. Chileans head to the polls on Sunday to vote on a new constitution which would usher in sweeping changes to the country’s current economic model. While the... 30th August 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update Better news on core inflation ahead We expect some of the recent surge in travel services prices to be reversed after the summer which, together with signs that global goods shortages are easing, suggests that core inflation is close to... 30th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jul.) The decent rise in consumer credit values in July may overstate the current resilience of real consumer spending as credit is being supported by the rapid increases in consumer prices. Either way, as... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike rates to 3.60% by early-2023 With the unemployment rate falling to fresh lows and consumer spending remaining resilient, another 50bp hike at the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on 6 th September is all but... 30th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB as hawkish as Fed at Jackson Hole While attention has understandably focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech made last Friday, there were also important interventions over the weekend by ECB policymakers. These... 29th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish Fed may still be a headwind for bonds and stocks With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood, we don’t expect a big rally in Treasuries or equities until next year. 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Treading water Taiwan’s export orders data this week suggested that China’s economic weakness is spilling over to the rest of the region. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia has done something out of the ordinary: hiking... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Economy holding up amid policy tightening GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY22/23) due next week should show that the economy grew at a robust pace last quarter despite the onset of monetary policy tightening. And more timely indicators suggest that... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly External risks, Banxico minutes, Massa’s orthodoxy Current account figures released this week go a long way to explaining the diverging performance between the Mexican and the Chilean pesos. While we expect both to weaken over the coming months, there... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s elections, SA price pressures, Ethiopia’s debt President João Lourenço is on course to secure another term following this week’s elections in Angola. With the political backdrop little changed, we think that the economy will revert to its low... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Flodén eyeing faster rate rises One does not need to be Nostradamus to see that Martin Flodén will espouse stepping up the pace of monetary tightening when the Executive Board of the Riksbank convenes again, in September. While our... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think risky assets will struggle as optimism fades The rebound in the prices of “risky” assets has stalled recently and we expect it to go into reverse over the rest of this year as economic growth in many major DMs disappoints and appetite for risk... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilient activity points to aggressive RBA tightening While business surveys in other advanced economies point to shrinking activity, the are holding up much better in Australia. The resilience of Australia's consumer reflects the strongest rise in... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
