UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily E-Z yields likely to rise only gradually despite PEPP recalibration The ECB announced a reduction in the pace of its asset purchases today, but both its forward guidance and its updated economic projections still suggest that the Bank will keep monetary policy very... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows purchases but keeps policy ultra-loose The ECB today confirmed that it will slow its asset purchases slightly but this is a long way from a “full taper”. We think inflation will drop even further than the ECB expects over the medium term... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates on hold until 2023 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, and won’t be in any rush to adjust rates soon. Although the economy should start to rebound now that virus restrictions are being... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Producer price inflation reached its highest since August 2008 last month due to the rally in global commodity prices. But the breakdown suggests that upward pressure on the factory-gate prices of... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to press ahead with tightening Economic activity in New Zealand took a significant hit as the country was plunged into its strictest level of lockdown in August. But New Zealand’s success at taming the virus means output should... 9th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank on hold ahead of likely October taper There are some emerging downside risks to the economic outlook both domestically and globally but, after taking a well-anticipated pause at this meeting, we do not expect those risks to prevent the... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s asset purchase pace is ripe for reduction The fact that the Swedish GDP indicator was nearly 2% above its pre-virus level in July puts a question mark over the wisdom of the Riksbank’s plan to exhaust its asset purchase envelope by end-2021... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Implications of a weak monsoon This year’s monsoon has so far been weaker than usual. This won’t have as big an economic impact as it would have a couple of decades ago. But it will harm employment and energy production. Some... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may only hike in 2023 While the RBA pressed ahead with tapering its asset purchases today, the financial markets are too optimistic in pricing in rate hikes as soon as next year. 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (August) While the spike in August inflation in the Philippines makes the central bank’s (BSP) policy decision this month an even closer call, the worsening outlook for the economy means we are sticking with... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s recovery worries, hawks fly in Chile The disappointing economic data out of Brazil this week has cast some clouds over the economy’s recovery prospects. As it happens, we think that GDP growth will pick up quite strongly in Q3, but we’re... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea spending boost, Malaysia rate meeting Korea’s proposed budget for 2022 indicates that fiscal policy will remain supportive next year. This should give the BoK added reassurance that the economy will be able to withstand further rate hikes... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly From not enough jobs to not enough workers It’s remarkable how quickly the fear keeping policymakers awake at night has shifted from there being too many people out of work to there not being enough people to fill all the vacant jobs... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
