Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Year-on-year money and lending growth has fallen sharply this year and we think it will decline further. With the subdued level of economic activity also weighing on consumer prices, we don’t think... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to continue tightening into 2022 We were among the first forecasters to call that the Bank of Korea (BoK) would begin tightening monetary policy this year and it duly delivered today, raising the policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Given... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB hints at slower tightening, tapering takes stage Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised its base rate by another 30bp, to 1.50%, as expected today but also dropped its commitment to raise interest rates on a monthly basis which suggests that the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Fourth wave could delay recovery GDP is on track to return to its pre-pandemic level this month but, with the number of coronavirus infections now picking up, there is a growing risk that the recoveries in some sectors go into... 24th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI maintains its dovish tone as outlook dims Israel’s central bank (BoI) sounded more cautious about the outlook at today’s MPC meeting given the rise in virus cases and tightening of containment measures. Provided the third booster jab is... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Policy to stay loose despite first signs of MPC dissent The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a hike in the reverse repo rate and a change in policy stance would be... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed still to decide on taper timeline The Fed now looks likely to begin tapering its asset purchases later this year, but the precise timing could depend on the extent of any economic drag from the continued rapid spread of the Delta... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure Romania's new finance minister has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path, especially as the PM is seeking to raise spending. Elsewhere, Israel's fourth virus wave has... 20th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank in the final furlong; CHF on the up We expect the Norges Bank to deliver on its plan to start to raise interest rates, in September, which could offer some respite for the beleaguered krone. Meanwhile, data released next week are likely... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly BIG a non-starter, rand on the rocks, Hichilema hired The South African authorities appear to be devoting increased attention to the idea of a permanent basic income grant (“BIG”) but, in practice, such proposals are probably dead on arrival. Meanwhile... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ may delay hiking until May The recent reimposition of the strictest level of lockdown in New Zealand was enough to prevent the RBNZ from hiking rates in August. And our assumption that restrictions will now remain in place... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hike rates next week With new cases of COVID-19 rising, most analysts expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to leave rates unchanged on Thursday. While it is likely to be a close call, we are sticking with our view that the... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to delay tightening until next year A fresh lockdown upended the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s plan to raise interest rates this week. Given that the latest virus outbreak is driven by the highly contagious Delta variant, we suspect... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly The broad contours of policy normalisation We’ve argued for some time that the RBI is in no rush to join several of its emerging market peers in tightening monetary policy, a view that has been reinforced by the dovish commentary in the latest... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
