Japan Economics Update New Bank of Japan Governor unlikely to lift rates The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today and while a new Prime Minister could appoint a more hawkish BoJ Governor, we expect the Bank to keep interest rates unchanged for years. 22nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR cuts appear imminent Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold for a 17th consecutive month today. But with the economy losing steam and concerns around the property sector growing, we think policy rate cuts... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the Aussie dollar to remain under pressure Growing evidence of an economic slowdown in China reinforces our view that the Australian dollar will fall further against the US dollar through the end of this year. 21st September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB to stick with slower pace of tightening Hungary’s central bank (MNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle today, raising its base rate by a smaller-than-expected 15bp to 1.65%, and the post-meeting communications signalled that future... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia will be in no rush to tighten Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% and signalled that it is likely to leave rates on hold for a prolonged period of time. With the economy rebounding on the back of a fall in... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily A few more thoughts on Evergrande and its implications Further bad news out of China about troubled property developer Evergrande over the weekend has led to a continuation of last week’s risk-off shift across financial markets today. We think three... 20th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Next PM will benefit from vaccine booster The race to become the new LDP leader – and with it PM – formally began on Friday. With Delta cases plunging and the vaccination rate having caught up with many other advanced economies, whoever wins... 20th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: further rate hikes likely The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by 25bp and made clear further tightening is likely as the central bank shifts its focus away from supporting the recovery and towards... 20th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ‘BIG’ push in SA, FX distortions in Nigeria, tourism woes Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the industrial metals/LatAm equities divergence The unusual divergence between the GSCI Industrial Metals and MSCI EM Latin America Index recently reflects a couple of developments which we suspect are one-offs. We think that the typical... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN maintains interest rates and disruptive FX rules Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting and will probably continue to do so over 2021-23. And the central bank’s insistence on maintaining a strong... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s PASO surprise, Pemex debt The loss for Argentina’s ruling Peronists in the open primary (PASO) for mid-term legislative elections in November suggest that the political tides might be shifting and boosted local financial... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Monetary policy decisions, served three ways After months of anticipation, the Norges Bank will surely pull the trigger on its long-awaited tightening cycle next Thursday. We suspect that policymakers will portray the rate rise as a “dovish hike... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the... 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
