Asia Economics Update Stronger dollar to keep policymakers in tightening mode A strong US dollar is a threat to countries with lots of foreign currency debt and/or inflation problems, and is putting pressure on central banks across the region to raise interest rates more... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will cut rates next year Other analysts are catching up to our view that rates will rise well above 3%. But with Australia not facing a wage-price spiral and higher interest rates set to reverse the recent surge in goods... 27th September 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update The implications of higher rates for the housing market Investors have revised up how far they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates as they continue to digest the tax cuts announced on Friday. This Update examines what the impact on the... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Italy’s new leadership may still put more pressure on spreads Italy’s new governing coalition doesn’t seem to have troubled investors for now, but we suspect worries about debt sustainability will still result in long dated Italian government bonds struggling... 26th September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Govt & BoE response to weak pound (26th Sep.) 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Policy Response to Plunging Pound (26th Sep.) The further fall in the pound in early trading means that we’ve now reached the point where the Bank of England needs to step in in order to regain the initiative. There are a couple of ways it could... 26th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The UK’s fiscal gamble will keep Gilt yields high We think 10-year gilt yields will remain high following Friday’s fiscal statement from the UK Government. 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s economic woes, perpetual power cuts in SA Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks won’t flinch at weak PMIs Another month, another batch of PMIs pointing to Q3 GDP having fallen in major advanced economies. Yet despite the deterioration in real activity, as well as some further signs that pipeline price... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed forces the Bank to do more The hawkish message from the Federal Reserve this week has prompted us to revise up our forecast for the peak policy rate in Canada to 4.0%, even as the latest data suggest that inflationary pressures... 23rd September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed resolute in battle to slay the inflationary dragon The Fed’s transformation from inflation-denier back to Volcker-style inflation-slayer is all but complete. As Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his press conference this week, “we have got to get... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Tango with the IMF, tightening cycles This week’s news that Argentina will receive the next tranche of its IMF deal has caused near-term debt risks to ease. But the Fund has still not addressed the overvalued exchange rate, which could... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam joins the region’s tightening cycle Despite low inflation, Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) joined the region’s tightening cycle on Thursday, when it raised rates by 100bp. Further hikes are likely as the SBV looks to support the dong... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall more slowly in Europe than in the US There has been growing evidence that pipeline price pressures have eased, underlining our view that inflation will fall sharply next year. Commodity prices and shipping costs have fallen, product... 23rd September 2022 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to raise rates further, and perhaps faster We revised up our forecasts for the ECB’s key policy rate this week, and now see it peaking at 3% next year rather than 2%. Moreover, we think there is a growing chance of a 100bp rate hike next month... 23rd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly A trio of hawkish central banks In what has proven to be an action-packed week for major central banks, those in the Nordics and the SNB kept their end up and delivered historically large rate rises. And despite the surveys... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
