Canada Economic Outlook Modest recession could morph into something worse The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Update RBA’s dovish tilt unlikely to be replicated elsewhere With price pressures still strong, the looming global recession is unlikely to derail central banks’ tightening plans in the months ahead. While the RBA quoted the deteriorating global outlook when it... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Recession will add to disinflationary pressure We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation to fall back more sharply in 2023 Continued worries about inflation mean the central bank (BoK) in Korea still has further work to do, and we are sticking with our view that the BoK will raise interest rates by at least 50bp between... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the outlier In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike all the way to 4.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked the overnight cash rate by 50bp to 3.5% as widely anticipated and the hawkish tone of the statement is consistent with our forecast that rates will peak at 4.5%... 5th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (Oct. 22) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Retreat in bond yields may be a little premature Despite the recent retreat in expectations for interest rates – which seems to be a key driver on the big bounce in equities this week so far – we still expect most major central banks to maintain... 4th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Multiple challenges raise risk of policy errors Recent developments have made a bad situation worse for central banks and what was already a challenging environment has become even more challenging. Not only is inflation proving more persistent... 4th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Looser policy on the cards before long The Reserve Bank of Australia slowed the pace of monetary tightening by delivering a smaller 25bp rate hike to 2.60% this month, but we still expect rates to peak a touch higher than most anticipate... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Oct. 22) 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI stays the course with another 75bp rate hike The Bank of Israel delivered another 75bp interest rate hike to 2.75% today and while the accompanying communications were not particularly hawkish, it’s clear that the tightening cycle is far from... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
