Asia Economics Update Falls in rupiah put pressure on BI to tighten further Bank Indonesia (BI) has been stepping up its efforts to support the rupiah in recent weeks, and we think further FX intervention and interest rate hikes are likely over the coming months as the... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update European households’ costs to soar despite fiscal aid The sharp increases in gas and electricity prices in Europe mean that households there – particularly in Germany and Italy – will see a steep rise in their costs of energy consumption. Accordingly... 28th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US equities don’t seem to be factoring in a gloomier economy The plunge in the stock market in the US that has accompanied the recent ratcheting up of rate expectations there has been partly blamed on concerns that more aggressive Fed tightening is undermining... 28th September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response BoE response to soaring gilt yields (28th Sep.) 28th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand needs to accelerate pace of tightening The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bp (to 1.0%) and appears committed to raising interest rates gradually over the coming months. But with inflation elevated and the... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike rates all the way to 4.5% With GDP growth holding up and food inflation climbing to a fresh high, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike rates by another 50bp to 3.5% at its upcoming meeting on 5th October. And with the... 28th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Fiscal credibility key for Gilts & sterling Although the latest sell-off in Gilts has been driven in part by expectations for higher interest rates, the accompanying fall in sterling suggests the risk premia attached to UK assets has risen. In... 27th September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Rates to rise to 5% to offset loose fiscal plans and low pound In response to the government’s loose fiscal plans and the resulting weakening in the pound, we now think that interest rates will rise from 2.25% now to a peak of 5.00% (4.00% previously). Rates at... 27th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB ends rate hiking cycle, but risks remain After raising its base rate by a larger-than-expected 125bp, to 13.00%, Hungary’s central bank (MNB) announced today that it has now ended its rate hiking cycle and we now forecast the base rate to be... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Market moves make house price falls inevitable In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Housing Update to clients of our UK Economics service. The rise in market interest rates that has already happened will push up mortgage... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Rising inflation, weak naira push CBN into large hike The Central Bank of Nigeria upped the pace of its tightening cycle today, increasing the benchmark rate by 150bp, to 15.50%, as officials have become increasingly concerned about sky-high inflation... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers on alert as EM currencies tumble The ramping up of the US Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has turbocharged the dollar’s appreciation against EM currencies, with most falling by 2-6% against the greenback since the start of the month... 27th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Extra policy tightening to tip the world into recession It is now clear that central banks in advanced economies will raise interest rates even further than our above-consensus forecasts had implied, making the current tightening cycle the most aggressive... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation at a turning point Latin American currencies have come under pressure this month which will put further upward pressure on inflation, but the bigger picture is that headline rates are at, or close to, a peak across the... 27th September 2022 · 12 mins read
