Capital Daily Are bond markets in India & China getting interesting? Recent developments have brought the global spotlight onto sovereign bonds in India and China. We expect the former to fare the best of the two. 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Rangebound dollar likely to fade towards year end The US dollar has edged higher over the past quarter or so, driven by the twin tailwinds of rising Treasury yields and US equity outperformance. We think these factors may continue to support the... 3rd July 2024 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily Yen still poised for a large rebound when Fed eases Despite the continued depreciation of the yen so far this year, we still expect it to rebound against the greenback supported by its relatively low valuation and the start of the easing cycle in the... 2nd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We think the future remains bright for US equities We continue to expect equities to outperform most other assets through the end of next year, as the hype around AI builds and lower inflation facilitates more monetary easing in some places than... 1st July 2024 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily French election first-round relief rally might not last Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to... 1st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Will rising JGB yields cause capital repatriation? In view of the wider interest, we are resending this publication to include clients of our Global Markets Service. We apologise to readers of our Japan Economics Service who are receiving it twice... 1st July 2024 · 15 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar treads water ahead of US non-farm payrolls The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The US election and EMs Under a second Trump administration, the imposition of large tariffs on China would hurts its economy but could speed up investment in manufacturing capacity elsewhere. However, a broader global... 28th June 2024 (Updated 6th November 2024) · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most... 28th June 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025 Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A tale of two tech bubbles & why we doubt this one will pop soon The last US tech bubble inflated in a different way to this one. A comparison of the two leads us to conclude that this bubble will continue to inflate, despite the recent wobble in Nvidia’s share... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Brazilian real at 30 Monday marks the 30th anniversary of the introduction of Brazil’s currency, the real, as part of a stabilisation plan (the Plano Real) which successfully tamed runaway inflation. For other EMs facing... 27th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle moving into a new phase Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is... 27th June 2024 · 26 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal... 27th June 2024 · 19 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably... 27th June 2024 · 1 min read
