Asset Allocation Update The US/China relationship and global financial markets With a lot of pessimism seemingly already priced in to China’s “risky” assets, we suspect any further thawing in US/China relations could give them a boost. But we think their longer-term outlook is... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The prospects for the “China risk premium” A thawing in China/US tensions could, in our view, help “risky” assets in China for a while by reducing the “China risk premium” that seems to have emerged. But we doubt it would fully reverse the... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Outperformance of Brazilian assets likely to end soon Growing external and domestic headwinds suggest to us that Brazilian financial markets will come under pressure over the short term and are unlikely to resume their outperformance beyond that. In view... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks and the Three Bull Markets Investors seem to be banking on a “Goldilocks” US economic environment which, if sustained, might lead to bull markets for most bonds, equities, and currencies. But we think this is a bit optimistic. 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of volatility and risk premia Measures of cross-asset volatility and risk premia suggest that investors are increasingly discounting a fairly rosy market environment over the coming months. This leaves them at risk of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update A bright outlook for EM bonds, but not just yet We think that bonds in Emerging Markets (EMs) will struggle in the next couple of months. Further ahead, though, we expect their yields to fall, as both “risk-free” rates and spreads drop. In view of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Biggest post-CPI yield fall in a year may be just the start While past dips in the 10-year Treasury yield since inflation peaked proved to be short lived, we think that yield will continue to fall from here. 14th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Making sense of the ESG bond premium A lack of appropriate regulation may be one reason why ESG bond issuance has slowed over recent years, and why the premium that investors are willing to pay for ESG bonds over conventional bonds has... 14th November 2023 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal versus monetary policy and the outlook for Treasuries Although yesterday’s poorly digested auction of 30Y Treasuries served as a reminder that the outlook for fiscal policy has the potential to undermine US long-dated government bonds, we still think... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell closes the door on recent dollar weakness In an otherwise quiet week, the greenback seems set to close higher against most major currencies, reversing much of its decline following the October payrolls data release. We think the dollar’s rise... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Economic turbulence could still knock “risky” assets off course Even though we expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 at a much higher level than it is now, we doubt it will build on its recent gains over the coming months given the outlook for the economy. 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Rebound in “carry” currencies may prove short-lived High carry EM currencies have rallied as US bond yields have fallen back and risk sentiment has improved, but we still expect most of these currencies to come under renewed pressure in the coming... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What next for the greenback? While the US dollar has bounced back a bit this week, its struggles over the past month or so are in some ways similar to the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year. But we think a comparable... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Answering your questions about the effects of R* on markets Following the release of our new analysis on real equilibrium interest rates (R*) last month, we held an online Drop-In last week and in-person Roundtable events with clients yesterday to discuss our... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Déjà vu all over again for the dollar? The US dollar’s struggles over the past month or so are reminiscent of the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year, but a similar slide over the coming months looks unlikely. Instead, we continue... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
