Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth appears to have all but stalled in Q3 but that was after a very strong first half. There... 9th November 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily ‘Magnificent 7’ may keep outperforming for a while Given our pessimistic view of the economy in the US, we think that equities there will fare quite poorly in the near term. But the biggest components of the S&P 500 might hold up better. 8th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Shifting correlations may also be driving Treasury term premia One factor that may have contributed to higher Treasury term premia, as posited recently by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in connection with the Quarterly Refunding, is a shift in the... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily RBA/Fed divergence may not be enough to pry 10y yields apart Despite some differences in the monetary policy outlooks for Australia and the US, we doubt 10-year yields in the two economies will diverge much. 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily High-yield credit spreads may rise again We think the risks to the “goldilocks” view now being discounted in markets are skewed towards a bigger slowdown in the US economy than is currently discounted, driving credit spreads up over the... 6th November 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Weak US payrolls finally break the currency stalemate After a remarkably slow October in currency markets – for all the fireworks in bond and equity markets, most major currencies were roughly unchanged on the month – November has started with a bang... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A goldilocks Employment Report for US bonds and equities We think today’s big moves in markets in the wake of October’s US Employment Report are a sign of things to come over the next twelve months or so. 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We still don’t expect a “new dawn” for Japan’s equities We expect Japan’s stock market to underperform that of the US in both local- and common-currency terms over the next couple of years. 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4 2023) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 1st November 2023. Our latest projections have been... 2nd November 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily It’s a long way down from the mountain for Gilt yields The yields of UK government bonds (Gilts) have dropped back in recent days, and we think that they will fall further over the next year or so, even if they settle far above their post-pandemic lows. 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ normalisation points to higher JGB yields & stronger yen We think the Bank of Japan’s continued steps towards policy normalisation are consistent with somewhat higher JGB yields and a significant rebound in the yen over the coming quarters. In view of the... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus Will falling inflation ultimately push US Treasury yields down? Although Treasury yields have fallen back in recent days, the big picture is that they are still much higher than they were when headline and core inflation peaked more than a year ago in the US. In... 2nd November 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury term premia may not fall back The Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding announcement (QRA) today may have eased some upward pressure on Treasury term premia, but we think these premia are unlikely to fall further over the coming years. 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily YCC tweak fails to help the yen, MoF intervention next? As is often the case, it is hard to know just what to make of the Bank of Japan’s latest policy announcement. Our sense is that the resulting rise in Japanese government bond yields is more likely to... 31st October 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our View: Growth in the US and other advanced economies will disappoint, keeping pressure... 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The dollar stayed strong in October but failed to add much to its broad-based rally since July. We think elevated US yields are likely to keep the greenback on the front foot, particularly if risk... 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
