Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s new exchange rate regime, Noboa’s victory The smaller-than-expected fall in the Argentinian peso following the easing of capital controls suggests that the move has released pent-up hard currency flows back into the economy. Our sense is that... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Would an equity crash spell disaster for the economy? The latest sell-off in equities is still a long way from the scale of those market corrections which coincided with recessions in the past. As things stand, the ~14% fall in the S&P 500 since February... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Outlook: Asset allocation in a Brave New World Our base case is that the turmoil across financial markets in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement will continue to stabilise. As such, we assume that most asset prices and the... 17th April 2025 · 21 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t cut nearly as far as the RBNZ Markets remain optimistic that the RBA will cut its cash rate from 4.1% at present to below 3% by year-end. But with the labour market still tight and activity starting to rebound, we're sticking to... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will likely see limited direct impact from the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. But the bigger growth worry should come from the US trade turmoil... 16th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Further renminbi weakness looks likely to us We think China will continue to allow the renminbi to weaken, perhaps all the way to 8.0/$ . 16th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market turbulence may continue to subside While the dust from the market sell-off continues to settle, there are few signs that the turmoil in equity and sovereign bond markets has sparked broader instability or a self-reinforcing downward... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Focus Trump pushes the dollar through the looking glass; what next? The ongoing fallout across financial markets from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement has resulted in a sharp fall in the dollar and what looks increasingly like a generalised loss of... 15th April 2025 · 19 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan's economy will be hit less hard than many other large economies by the recent escalation of... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the worst in markets over? The market turmoil sparked by the tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on “Liberation day” has somewhat eased in the past couple of trading days. Absent further bad news, we think the worst... 14th April 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus Is China offloading its dollar assets? Available data don’t give a definitive answer to whether sales by Chinese institutions contributed to the recent volatility in the US bond market. But China’s state managers of foreign assets still... 14th April 2025 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina & the IMF: 23rd time lucky? Argentina’s latest IMF programme and the move to partially dismantle some capital controls and liberalise the exchange rate suggests policymakers are moving more quickly than we’d anticipated to... 14th April 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap USD: How to lose a safe haven status in 10 days? After another tumultuous week across financial markets, the dollar is on track for one of its worst weeks on record. At this point, the main question for the dollar is no longer what the direct... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Safe haven flows to force SNB into action With the Swiss currency having experienced its largest two-week appreciation since the “Frankenshock” in 2015, the SNB may already have started selling francs in the FX market. We have a 25bp cut... 11th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: The fallout from tariff mayhem in EZ markets This week’s historic changes in US trade policy and the associated market fallout point in the direction of a weaker euro-zone economy, lower inflation and looser monetary policy. While bond spreads... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
