Capital Daily What to make of latest sector performance in the S&P 500 Although the relative performance of the three “big-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 has underwhelmed recently, we suspect that they will be at, or near, the front of the pack again in 2024. 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Falling Treasury yields may provide more respite for REITs Although we expect US equity office REITs to benefit further from falling long-dated Treasury yields, we continue to think that their long-run prospects are blighted by a structural reduction in... 4th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The Treasury yield curve could “disinvert” next year We expect the Treasury yield curve to “disinvert” in 2024, as we think the Fed will cut rates by more than investors expect and term premia will remain at least as high as they are now. 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How German and Swiss bond yields may measure up Although the spread between the 10-year German and Swiss government bond yields has widened significantly over the past couple of years, we think it will stay close to this level for a long while yet. 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Lessons from Brazil’s first sovereign ESG bond Brazil’s first sovereign ESG bond arrived last month amid much fanfare, but the reality is that any “ESG premium” looked fairly limited to us. And we think ESG bond premia, in general, will likely... 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Swedish krona’s decade-long fall may be ending Our view about relative economic and interest rate prospects in Sweden and the euro-zone suggests that the Swedish krona’s recent rebound may prove durable. In fact, given how far below “fair value”... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar remains on the backfoot ahead of non-farm payrolls The greenback’s grind lower has continued this week amid falling US Treasury yields and strong appetite for risk. While comments from numerous Fed speakers (including Chair Powell today) continued to... 1st December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Still time for the S&P 500 to party like it’s 1999 Despite how far it has come this year, we think the S&P 500 can make further big gains over the next couple of years. 1st December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt oil prices will impact the Treasury rally Oil prices have seemingly had little spillover to other financial markets over recent months, and we don’t think anything from the latest OPEC+ meeting is likely to prevent a further rally in US... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our View: We are more dovish than investors regarding the amount of rate cuts that the Fed... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Both "safe" and "risky" assets have generally notched up strong returns this month. We... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update NZ bond yields’ divergence from other DMs may be over We think that long-term sovereign bond yields in New Zealand – which are currently among the highest in the developed world – will fall back to similar levels as those elsewhere over the next couple... 30th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may fall by less than Treasury yields next year While we think both yields will fall next year, we expect a smaller drop in the yield of 10-year Bunds than in that of 10-year Treasuries. 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Currency markets and the G10 easing cycle With the post-pandemic global monetary tightening cycle now drawing to a close, this Update takes stock of where interest rate expectations in the G10 economies stand and what that implies for the... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China to buck the trend of rising equilibrium rates In much of the world, interest rates are likely to settle at higher levels than was the case prior to the pandemic. But China is a key exception, with its shrinking population, slowing productivity... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Relief rally in Swedish krona a sign of things to come? Given how far below “fair value” the Swedish krona appears to us, we suspect that its decade-long fall may be coming to an end. 28th November 2023 · 4 mins read
