DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (July 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets have continued to rise, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the inflation of a bubble in stock markets, itself a... 12th July 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: sovereign default risks on the rise again Recent protests in Kenya have dealt a heavy blow to President Ruto’s fiscal consolidation plans and, with the president dismissing the cabinet yesterday as he tries to cling on to power, it looks... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the outlook for the renminbi & the yen The continued weakness of the renminbi and the yen against the US dollar despite the narrowing of interest rate differentials via-a-vis the US is something of a conundrum, but our sense remains that... 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Could the economy burst this bubble? Another fairly encouraging US CPI report seems unlikely to blow the buoyant S&P 500 far off course given the implications for Fed policy. Indeed, it strengthens the case for a rate cut in September. 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years. 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: Will the BOJ hike rates again before the policy window closes? 31st July 2024, 9:00AM BST With shifting Japanese inflation dynamics likely to shrink the Bank of Japan’s opportunity to tighten policy in the coming months, we think its July meeting will
Capital Daily Corporate bonds likely to keep trailing equities We think that corporate bonds will continue to underperform equities, as credit spreads are already low, economic growth moderates, and equities benefit more from enthusiasm about AI. 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the euro will fare well against the pound In the wake of the political tumult in France contrasting with newfound stability in the UK, the outlook for the exchange rate between the euro and sterling has come into spotlight. We think that... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with... 9th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkey losing external competitiveness? Turkey’s economy has maintained strong external price competitiveness since the pandemic (mirrored by rapid export growth). But measures of competitiveness have shown a noticeable decline in the past... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What next for France? The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very... 8th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to... 8th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields could fall further still, but not the dollar We expect Treasury yields to fall a bit further, but we doubt that will lead to a weaker dollar. 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar down as more cracks emerge in US economy More evidence of softening in the US economy from data releases – notably, the ISM survey data and June’s employment report – weighed on US Treasury yields and left the greenback lower against most... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US activity unlikely to burst the AI bubble The US ISM services data published yesterday suggested that US economic growth slowed in June. Even so, the S&P 500 index surged on the news. And we think it will rise much further, as stock market... 4th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
