Capital Daily 2024 could be a better year for the yen than the renminbi We expect the Japanese yen to make larger gains this year than the Chinese renminbi. 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Chinese equities may keep trailing Indian ones While equities in China might make up some lost ground over the next few months relative to those in India, we suspect they’ll underperform over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we are... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of markets’ rocky start to 2024 With most major bond and equity markets on track for a second down day to start the new year, it’s fair to say that financial markets have started 2024 with something of a mild hangover. While reading... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 28th December 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap One rangebound year in currency markets gives way to another? The final week ahead of the holiday period is drawing to an end with the US dollar somewhat weaker across the board. Unlike last year, the BoJ’s final policy meeting proved a(nother) damp squib, with... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are the bears finally coming for the Goldilocks trade? We think “risky” assets could struggle relative to “safe” ones in the near term if, as we expect, growth disappoints, although we still think they’ll outperform over next year as a whole. Note: The... 21st December 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Five key questions for currency markets in 2024 As the year draws to a close, this Update sets out our answers to five of the most commonly asked questions about currency markets for the coming year. In short, we expect another year of muddling... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily “Growth” may keep outperforming “value” next year While the valuation gap between “growth” and “value” factors in the US is high by past standards, we suspect that “growth” will generally keep outperforming in the next year or two. 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds may weather JGB market normalisation We think the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield will rise over 2024 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifts its policy rate early next year and constraints on the JGB market ease. And while that... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ normalisation may lift JGB yields & bolster the yen We expect the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise next year, as the era of negative interest rates there comes to an end and constraints on the bond market ease. And we think the yield gap... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Investors’ growing expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates in March next year, as well as the recent soft UK wage and inflation data, have convinced investors that the Bank of England... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update US economy unlikely to burst another bubble in equities Although the economic backdrop is likely to be less favourable for the stock market in the US over the next two years than it was in second half of the 1990s, we doubt this will prevent a similar... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (December 2023) The valuations of “risky” assets have recovered somewhat lately as “safe” asset yields have tumbled. While we suspect any slowdown in global growth could put risky asset valuations back under pressure... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Taking stock of investors’ interest rate expectations Fed officials have pushed back a bit against market bets for rate cuts today, helping to send yields a bit higher. But the bigger picture is that there has been a massive reassessment of the timing... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Everyone is invited to the rally (except you, dollar) The Fed’s shift away from its “higher for longer” messaging (and European central banks attempts at maintaining a hawkish stance) pushed relative interest rate expectations against the US dollar... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
