Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Commodity-exposed stock markets may disappoint Although we expect equities in general to fare well over the next year or so, we think that falls in most commodity prices will weigh on the energy and materials sectors. That would be bad news for... 10th June 2024 · 4 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: The future of global macro and markets leadership - Will the US be overtaken? We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 3 - Can the US stock market keep outshining the rest? US economic dominance has not always translated into stock market outperformance. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), however, US equities have largely outperformed those in the rest of the world... 10th June 2024 · 25 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Executive Summary: The future of global macro and markets leadership We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls surprise unlikely to slow AI-rally much Another strong reading on the US labour market has reversed much of the recent drop in US interest rate expectations but we continue to think Treasury yield are headed lower later this year. 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap USD bounces back (to unchanged) after payrolls surprise The strong nonfarm payrolls report released earlier today broke the recent streak of downward data surprises out of the US and has renewed strength in the dollar. Even so, the greenback looks set to... 7th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Parsing the market’s verdict on recent EM elections Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in their financial markets over the past week or so, highlighting the potential for electoral surprises to generate short... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dust settling on election, MPC pendulum swinging Indian equities have ended an extraordinary week higher than where they began, which we think partly reflects the fact that investors have realised that a coalition government is not a terminal blow... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A new phase of the AI bubble? Investors appear to have shifted their bets away from stocks expected to benefit from using AI and doubled down on those expected to benefit from enabling the AI revolution. But the bigger picture is... 6th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The implications of Modi 3.0 for India’s equity market India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How Canadian and US bond yields may measure up Although the gap between 10-year Treasury and Canadian Government Bond yields has reached the highest level in at least three decades today, we think it will widen even further in the next couple of... 5th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What’s driving the US stock market? The US stock market has been pulled in different directions by economic data since last week. But we suspect that the general trend in the next year or so will be up, as equities benefit from at least... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM elections & markets: the good, the bad, & the ugly? Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in financial markets. Those moves may not last – often the immediate reaction to political events proves overdone – but... 3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read
