US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Aug. 2024)

The large rise in housing starts in August was due to a rebound in starts in the south, confirming that the July slump was a temporary disruption caused by Hurricane Beryl. The increase in permits...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Will remote work go into reverse?

We doubt the announcement by Amazon that it is requiring office-based workers to return full-time marks the start of a reversal in the remote work share. It is far from clear that requiring five days...

18th September 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

We doubt the small fall in Nationwide house prices in August was the start of a renewed downturn. Surveys suggest the recent declines in mortgage rates have led to an increase in housing demand, while...

17th September 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Focus

Regional divide in euro-zone office yield outlook

Taking stock of euro-zone office yields after their recent stabilisation reveals a convergence across the region, with spreads between the northern markets and the historically higher-risk southern...

17th September 2024 · 15 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Should institutions be worried about Renters’ Rights?

By making life harder for unscrupulous landlords, the Renters’ Rights Bill may help drive tenant demand toward institutional landlords who are already complying with most aspects of the proposed...

13th September 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Apartments to top the charts with total returns of 9.5% p.a.

There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to...

12th September 2024 · 21 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Milan office rent growth to undershoot the euro-zone

Milan office take-up has held up well in recent quarters, but this has not translated into stronger prime rental growth. With the outlook for jobs growth pointing to a slowdown in take-up while...

11th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why we are more optimistic on rental growth

Our rental growth forecasts for the industrial and retail sectors are notably above the consensus, particularly over the next couple of years. That primarily reflects our relatively optimistic...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run

Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Sep 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed forecasters are finally coming around to our long-held view that retail will preform relatively well over the next five years. Total returns for all the retail...

6th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Is industrial demand back on track?

The most recent European industrial take-up figures were slightly more encouraging. We expect activity will continue to slowly improve over the next couple of years, supported by the consumer recovery...

5th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Aug 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in August, but at 53.6 it remained in expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month.

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Dallas tops our updated rankings of 34 industrial markets

The dynamism of the industrial sector means that market-level outperformance is often only achievable for short periods, because either relative value deteriorates or new supply quickly completes...

4th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Immigration will support largest multifamily markets

While the headline-hitting surge in immigration last year was mainly driven by a spike in unauthorized movement, legal immigration has picked up from its pandemic lows, which is good news for many...

3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Worst of online drag is over, especially in the south

Recent estimates add to the evidence that online retail shares are growing more slowly across Europe. There has also been little sign of convergence in online shares, supporting our long-held view...

3rd September 2024 · 3 mins read