US Commercial Property Update

How did our 2024 key calls hold up?

2024 was another difficult year for commercial real estate. Although the sector appears to have fared better than we expected, our key calls were broadly right in terms of direction and winners and...

2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix to lead the way

Our apartment metro forecasts continue to show significant variation between metros, even within regions. For example, while we expect continued strong demand growth in the South – especially in...

23rd December 2024 · 7 mins read

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

Expect huge divergence in performance between metros

We expect there will continue to be major divergence between the winning and losing metros. We think the major markets and tech-centric western markets will continue to fare poorly thanks to low...

19th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Oversupply will keep CEE logistics in a rut in 2025

The non-euro-zone central European logistics markets have been Europe’s worst performing in 2024 as prime rents have fallen across the region. 2025 will herald more of the same, as oversupply keeps...

19th December 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. That will limit yield compression, and the...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Nov. 2024)

The decline in housing starts in November was entirely due to weakness in multifamily construction, which outweighed a post-hurricane rebound in single-family construction. The rise in permits to a...

18th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Trump tariffs would drag on port-centric industrial hubs

The incoming Trump administration is threatening to put new tariffs on European exports. In our view, given their limited macroeconomic impact, they will not be a game-changer for commercial property...

18th December 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

The sharp rise in transactions in October and the acceleration in house price growth in November suggest some relief rally or pent-up demand after the Budget is more than offsetting the recent rises...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Total returns to turn positive in 2025, but offices still weigh

The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery

The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than...

12th December 2024 · 27 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths

Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What happens if gilt yields don’t fall back?

Our forecast that commercial real estate is set for a modest recovery is dependent on our view that a decline in gilt yields will help stabilise property yields. But if interest rates don’t fall back...

11th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Rental growth to pick-up as apartment supply drops off

The peak in new apartment supply has passed, with completions set to drop back sharply over the next few years. If demand continues to hold up well as we expect, this should put downward pressure on...

10th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What’s keeping real estate investors awake at night?

A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that...

9th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

No holiday cheer for CRE debt

Our expectation of rising evidence of distressed assets in 2024 has come to bear, but we think more is still to come over the next couple of years. Some of that will stem from matured loans requiring...

5th December 2024 · 6 mins read