UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to a two-year high of 54.7 in May. Both the commercial and housing balances improved, with the latter rising above 50 for the first time since October 2022... 6th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How much office space will be needed by 2030? Our 2020 analysis of the impact of changed working patterns on office demand correctly estimated the share of fully remote work, but underpredicted the extent of hybrid work. Yet with office job... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will delays to rate cuts hit capital values? Inflation has been stickier than we had expected and we have therefore pushed back when we think the Bank will start cutting interest rates. That may put a little upward pressure on property yields... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Apr. 24) Following two consecutive quarters of declines, net lending to property reached £891m in April. But looking through the monthly volatility, net lending totalled just £692m over the past three months... 31st May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Residential outperforms within a modest recovery Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total... 30th May 2024 · 27 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom. 29th May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (May 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed limited change on the previous forecast round in March. There was a small upward revision to all-property rental growth expectations for 2024, but a downgrade to... 29th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK? While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes... 28th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spain logistics rent growth upgrade, but Madrid to trail Spanish industrial rent growth beat expectations in Q1 this year, outpacing rises elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, this was mainly due to Barcelona, where we have raised our prime rent forecast... 24th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24) Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2024) Smaller property yield rises and still-solid rental growth left all-property capital values little changed in Q1, a notable improvement on the sharp falls seen since mid-2022. However, we think... 22nd May 2024 · 0 mins read
US Housing Market Update Latest data offer little optimism for apartment rents The latest apartment rent data are consistent with our view that rental growth will be sluggish this year. Although single-family rent growth has fared better, we suspect it will soon start to slow... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Notes from our residential investment roundtables At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. Across the... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial REITs point the way for direct market prices The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
