Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan. 2020) The batch of Polish activity data for January suggest that GDP growth was broadly steady at around 3.2% y/y at the start of the year. With headwinds to growth building, the risks to our 2020 GDP... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) The batch of Polish activity data for December suggest that GDP growth weakened from 3.9% y/y in Q3 to a three-year low of 3.5% y/y in Q4. The slowdown in growth reinforces our view that the central... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Polish activity data for October showed that the economy lost a bit more momentum at the start of Q4. Our GDP Tracker points to growth slowing to around 3.6% y/y, from 3.9% y/y in Q3. 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update High inflation will prevent Polish MPC from cutting The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold at 1.50% today and with external headwinds mounting and the economy likely to slow sharply over the coming quarters, calls for interest... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The batch of Polish activity data for September suggest that GDP growth slowed from 4.5% y/y in Q2 to 3.8-4.0% y/y in Q3. 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from Law and Justice’s next term The Polish Law and Justice Party’s second term in power is likely to be much less impressive than its first, marked by slower economic growth, higher inflation and a poor financial market performance. 14th October 2019 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The relatively weak batch of Polish activity data for August suggest that euro-zone weakness is taking an increasing toll on the Polish economy. Our GDP Tracker points to growth slowing from 4.4% y/y... 20th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The batch of Polish activity data for July suggest that strong domestic demand is offsetting weakness in export-led sectors. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth edged just below 4% y/y at the start... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising Polish inflation won’t prompt policy change The rise in Polish inflation to a seven-year high in July and likelihood that it will stay above target over the next 18 months will keep the focus of the MPC on tightening. But we don’t think this... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw and secondary city retail trends poles apart As consumer spending growth slows in Poland, we expect retail spending to slow. The effect of this on physical retail outlets will be compounded in secondary locations by a growing share of sales... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) June’s weak batch of activity data came after two strong months and suggests that after growing by an impressive 4.7% y/y in Q1, the economy maintained a similar pace in Q2. 19th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment boom has further to run A further sharp rise in EU structural fund inflows will support strong Polish fixed investment growth over the next couple of years. But that won’t be enough to prevent overall GDP growth from slowing... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC continues to strike a dovish note The relatively dovish stance adopted by Poland’s MPC in the communications accompanying today’s interest rate meeting supports our view that monetary policy settings will be left unchanged until the... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish shift on Polish MPC won’t result in rate hike A rise in inflation has led five of the ten Polish MPC members to suggest that interest rates may soon need to be raised. But we doubt that any of the five more dovish members, including Governor... 2nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal concerns in Turkey, Hungary’s current account Investors in Turkey will be nervously waiting to see if President Erdogan can persuade President Trump at the G20 to approve Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile defence system, lifting the threat... 28th June 2019 · 9 mins read