Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal support will boost Polish & Czech economies Strong budget positions in Poland and the Czech Republic will allow governments to ramp up spending next year. That’s one key reason why we expect that GDP growth in 2019 in these countries will be... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly PiS backs down in EU row, Polish hawks getting louder This week’s U-turn by Poland’s government over a controversial judicial reform suggests that policymakers are adopting a less divisive stance in the run-up to next year’s elections. While this is... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Polish activity data for October were stronger than expected and suggest that the economy continued to motor along at a rapid pace at the start of Q4. 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Car emission tests not the key driver of CEE Q3 slowdown The net impact of a new vehicle emissions testing procedure on Q3 GDP growth appears to have been minimal in Poland and the Czech Republic, but could have knocked up to 0.4%-pts off quarter-on-quarter... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: More hawkish tone suggests rate hikes are near The relatively more hawkish tone adopted by the Polish MPC in its post-meeting press conference today suggests that the start of a monetary tightening cycle isn’t too far away. We think that... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT paves way for cuts, Polish industry stays soft in Q4 The latest comments from Turkey’s central bank suggest that policymakers are considering unwinding some of the recent rate hikes, reinforcing our view that the MPC isn’t serious about tackling the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poor election results to prompt Polish fiscal splurge The worse-than-expected performance of the ruling PiS party in Poland’s local elections last weekend is likely to prompt policymakers in Warsaw to ramp up social spending ahead of next year’s... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) Polish activity data for September were softer than expected and suggest that GDP growth weakened from 5.1% y/y in Q2 to 4.5% y/y in Q3. This slowdown is likely to continue over the next few quarters. 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC in dovish mood … for now Poland’s MPC maintained a dovish stance today. On the face of it, low inflation suggests that this position is justified, but we think that policymakers are too sanguine on the outlook for consumer... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) Polish activity data for August were strong and suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a rapid 5% y/y in Q3. The risks to our 2018 GDP growth forecast of 4.3% lie to the upside. 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail in Warsaw and Krakow trading places The full impact of Poland’s new Sunday trading laws is yet to become clear. But, coupled with a large pipeline in Warsaw, we think that rental growth in the capital will slow to 1.5% in both 2019 and... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why is Polish inflation weaker than elsewhere in CEE? Polish inflation is lower, and has been slower to rise, than elsewhere in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), which seems to be a result of having more slack in its labour market and faster productivity... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The strong batch of Polish activity data for July suggests that the economy continued to grow at around 5% y/y at the start of Q3. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE slowdown continues GDP data out next week will probably show that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed for a third straight quarter in Q2. We think that the slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
