Emerging Europe Economics Update EC triggers Article 7 against Poland: what next? The decision by the European Commission to trigger an Article 7 procedure against Poland is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy in the short-term. Poland’s structural fund inflows can’t be... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: surveys point to a marked rise in core inflation Core inflation has been slower to rise in Poland than in the rest of Central Europe this year, but survey-based measures of price expectations suggest that it is set to pick up markedly over the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s activity data for October suggest that growth remained soft at the start of Q4, at around 1.7% y/y. October data for Poland (also released today) were much stronger and suggest that GDP... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s judicial reforms, the EU and sanctions: a primer The European Parliament moved one step closer to sanctioning Poland earlier this week in response to the government’s controversial proposals to reform the judiciary. In this Update, we explain how... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The batch of Polish activity data for September, released today, suggests that the economy grew by around 4.8% y/y in Q3, which would be the best performance in six years. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC stays dovish, but rate hikes on the cards in 2018 Poland’s MPC left interest rates unchanged today and the press statement and conference that followed struck a dovish tone. While headline inflation is likely to edge down in the final months of this... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP may have expanded by as much as 5% y/y in Q3. However, this probably marks the peak for growth and... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of strong Polish activity data for August suggests that the economy is on course to grow by an impressive 4.5% y/y in Q3, up from 3.9% y/y in Q2. However, this is likely to mark the peak and... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Domestic demand in the driving seat Recently-released GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe showed that strengthening consumer spending and investment drove the pick-up in aggregate economic growth to a nine... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely next year The tone of the press statement and conference that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained dovish. However, there is a hawkish minority on the Council and, as core inflation picks up in the... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe suggest that economic growth has remained robust in Q3. That said, we think that the third quarter will mark a peak for growth across the region. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: Temporary drags on core inflation to fade soon A combination of a strong currency and the fading impact of a previously-introduced levy on the financial sector has kept a lid on Polish core inflation in recent months. These effects should soon... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth has remained robust in Q3, at around 4.5% y/y, but also that growth is now peaking. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
