Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs made for disappointing reading in most of Emerging Europe. After plunging to a nine-year low in May, the Turkish survey remained weak in June, suggesting that the... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) At a regional level, Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, supporting our view that regional GDP growth peaked in Q3 2017. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) The batch of Polish activity data for May suggests that the economy is set to slow from 5.2% y/y in Q1 to around 4% y/y in Q2. 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment growth will remain robust After a strong Q1, Polish fixed investment growth will stay robust over the duration of 2018. However, this won’t be enough to prevent headline GDP growth from slowing. 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The batch of Polish activity data for March suggests that the economy grew by 5% y/y in Q1 – in line with Q4’s outturn as a pick-up in retail spending growth offset a slowdown in industry. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Five more years of pain for Warsaw office rents Demand for office space in Warsaw will continue to grow in the coming years, but this will not be enough to offset around 1m sqm of new stock completing over that same period. In fact, rental value... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC increasingly dovish, rate hikes unlikely this year Governor Glapinski’s extremely dovish post-meeting press conference, coupled with the recent weak inflation data, has prompted us to take out the interest rate hikes from our forecast for this year... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) The batch of Polish activity data for February suggests that the economy continued to expand at a rapid pace in Q1 of close to 5% y/y – broadly in line with Q4’s outturn. Rapid wage growth and looser... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for February, of 1.4% y/y, means that the MPC is likely to stick to its dovish tone in the very near-term. However, we still think that price pressures... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about Polish fiscal policy? Fiscal policy in Poland is set to be loosened further this year, which is one reason why economic growth is likely to remain strong. There aren’t any imminent concerns about the health of the public... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC still dovish, but rate hikes not too far away Governor Glapinski struck a dovish tone in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting. However, we think that inflation will rise faster than the central bank anticipates over the coming... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish consumer spending to remain strong … for now We think that the near-term outlook for consumer spending in Poland is bright. A further acceleration in wage growth – together with loose fiscal policy and record-high consumer confidence – should... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish surveys suggest rise in core inflation is on its way Two widely-watched survey-based measures of price expectations in Poland hit seven-year highs in January, suggesting that core inflation is set to pick up markedly over the course of 2018. This... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC slightly less dovish, tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but recent comments from Governor Glapinski suggest that he is becoming increasingly concerned about the strength of the labour market. We think... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2017) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2017 GDP, which showed an expansion of 4.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth may have accelerated to as much as 5.4% y/y in Q4. This appears to... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
