Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Poland’s controversial judicial reforms The Polish government’s controversial proposals to reform the judiciary have been met by a backlash both domestically and from the EU. In this Watch, we take a closer look at how the saga could play... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the recovery in Russia’s economy continued at the start of Q3, but provided further evidence that growth in the rest of the region... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) The batch of strong Polish activity data for June suggests that the economy grew by a robust 4% y/y in Q2 – in line with Q1’s outturn. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish, but divisions growing The press statement that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained extremely dovish, but it does seem that there are growing divisions within the Council. With wage growth and core inflation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) June’s impressive batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators suggests that regional growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained above 4% y/y in Q2. The continued strong run of survey data supports our... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) The batch of robust Polish activity data for May suggests that the economy is probably growing by around 4.0% y/y, in line with Q1’s outturn. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might the surge in new retail supply mean for Warsaw? Shopping centre development in Warsaw is picking up pace. While the city’s growing wealth and low vacancy rate mean that it can accommodate more retail floorspace, we have nudged down our rental... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to rise further than most expect by end-2018 The press conference that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland highlighted that some members of the Council are becoming more hawkish. While this supports our view that the policy interest rate will... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sentiment starts to shift on Poland’s MPC The combination of strong growth and rising core inflation has led some members of Poland’s MPC to strike a more hawkish tone in recent months. However, while this is consistent with our view that... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) We wouldn’t read too much into the batch of weak April activity data for Poland, which were depressed by calendar effects. The underlying trend still seems to be one of strong growth. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish Polish MPC suggests rate hikes unlikely in 2017 The statement that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland was broadly unchanged from previous months and suggests that any change in interest rates is unlikely in the coming months. But with core... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2017) The stronger-than-expected batch of Q1 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe means that risks to our above-consensus 2017 growth forecasts now lie to the upside. These figures also raise the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack One important consequence of the recent period of strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe is that economies are now running at close to full employment. We expect growth to remain robust over the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
