Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC warns on inflation pressures Having left interest rates unchanged earlier today, the Romanian MPC once again used the accompanying press conference to warn that looser fiscal policy could lead to stronger inflation pressures. But... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s Polish activity data were generally a little weaker-than-expected, but even so it looks like the economy continued to grow at a robust pace of around 3.5% y/y in Q3. At the margin, these data... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug.) Deflation in Poland eased a little last month as a fall in energy inflation was more than offset by strengthening food inflation. We expect the headline rate to return to positive territory in the... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish as commodity prices fall, data soften Having left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50% earlier today, the Polish MPC struck a relatively dovish note at the post-meeting press conference, reinforcing our view that monetary policy... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) Economic Sentiment Indicators strengthened in most countries across Emerging Europe this month, suggesting that the region continued to grow at a healthy pace in the third quarter. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The raft of Polish activity data for July were slightly disappointing, but we don’t think this marks the start of a more serious downturn. Indeed, it still looks like the economy was growing by around... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jul.) The Polish economy remained in deflation in July, with consumer prices falling by 0.7% y/y, and the latest drop in oil prices may have pushed inflation deeper into negative territory this month. Even... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail set to benefit from strengthening consumer sector The Polish economy has started the year positively, supported by the recovering consumer sector. We expect further improvement in consumer finances to support retailer demand growth. The effect on... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment, IP (Jun.) & Poland IP (Jun.) Russia’s activity data for June made for grim reading. The hit to consumer-facing sectors has been particularly severe, but industry has struggled too. We estimate that GDP contracted by around 5% y/y... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jun.) Polish deflation eased a little in June, but this was entirely the result of smaller falls in food and energy prices than in May. Meanwhile, it looks like core inflation edged down a little. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC plays down risks from Greece The statement accompanying today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which the policy interest rate was left unchanged, sounded relatively sanguine on the risks posed by the deepening crisis in Greece to the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (May) Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag, with strengthening consumer spending broadly offsetting weakness in industry. Overall, it looks like GDP may have grown by around 3.5% y/y, roughly in... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (May) The sharper-than-expected fall in Polish consumer prices last month reinforces our view that the central bank will be under little pressure to raise interest rates any time soon. The market, which is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC a little less dovish, but nothing to suggest rate hikes The Polish MPC’s press release, which followed the decision to leave interest rates unchanged earlier today, suggested that the Council is slightly more upbeat on the economy’s growth prospects and... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s batch of manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe provided further evidence that the slump in the Russian economy has deepened in the second quarter. But the surveys finally brought some... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
