Emerging Europe Economics Update Equities weaken, bond yields rise Financial markets in Emerging Europe have generally performed poorly over the past month, with equities having dropped back and the region’s bonds having been hit by the sell-off in developed... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Law and Justice victory raises populism concerns in Poland Victory for Andrzej Duda of the Law and Justice Party in Sunday’s Polish presidential election has raised concerns about a shift towards more populist policymaking and taken some of the shine off... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (Apr.) The weakness of last month’s Polish industrial production and retail sales figures was disappointing, but the impact on overall GDP growth seems to have been partially offset by an improvement in the... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech Republic & Poland GDP (Q1) First quarter GDP data from Poland and the Czech Republic add to evidence suggesting that, while most other EMs have slowed since the start of this year, those in Central Europe have strengthened. 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s Polish CPI data, which showed that consumer prices fell by 1.1% y/y compared with a drop of 1.5% y/y in March, should ease lingering concerns that deflation might become entrenched. But today... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC plays down talk of tightening Having left interest rates unchanged earlier today, the Polish MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference in an effort to temper the market’s expectations for interest rate hikes... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s raft of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe, released today and yesterday, suggest that conditions in the Russian and Turkish industrial sectors improved a little at the start of the second... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The raft of strong Polish activity data for March was flattered by calendar effects but, even so, the economy clearly ended the first quarter of the year on a strong note. All in all, it looks like... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off concerns about deflation and strong zloty Having left the policy interest rate unchanged at 1.5% earlier today, the Polish National Bank’s governor, Marek Belka , dismissed suggestions that the strengthening zloty and March’s weaker-than... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Brightening outlook for Central European consumer markets Following a torrid few years after the global financial crisis, Central European consumer spending has started to recover gradually over the last eighteen months and there are reasons to expect this... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s Sunday trading ban symbolic of reform backsliding The decision taken by the Hungarian government to ban Sunday trading is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy at an aggregate level. But as we explain in this Watch, it may lead to a shift in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will stronger industrial output drive CE industrial rental growth? A combination of strengthening industrial output and further growth in the logistics sector will underpin industrial rental levels in Central Europe this year and allow them to pick up from 2016. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shaping up well at the start of 2015 Despite concerns about deflation, a recession in Russia and sluggishness in the euro-zone, the latest data out of Central Europe have been surprisingly robust. Industrial production growth has... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The Polish MPC was uncharacteristically forthright in its statement that today’s 50bp cut in the policyinterest rate, to 1.5%, marked the end of the easing cycle. But it’s clear that weak price... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Poland’s industrial production and retail sales data for February suggest that the economy grew by a solid 3% y/y or so last month. As a result, even though the economy fell further into deflation... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
