Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in the Russian economy resumed at the start of Q4 after a disappointing Q3. The surveys also provided early signs that the Turkish economy is... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) The weaker-than-anticipated batch of Polish activity data for September were by no means a disaster, and the figures suggest overall GDP growth edged down to around 2.8% over Q3 as a whole, compared... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC talks of rate hikes, but policy to remain loose Today’s data from the Halifax showed that house prices were more or less flat on the month in September. Therefore, it echoes the evidence provided by other indices that house prices have proved... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail rents enjoying a purple patch A solid and strengthening outlook for the Polish consumer sector will keep demand for prime retail units buoyant over the next couple of years. This will enable prime retail rents in Warsaw to grow by... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) The sharp improvement in last month’s Polish activity data will ease concerns of a slowdown sparked by July’s weak figures. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth picked up to around 3.0% y/y last month... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The weak Polish activity data for July, which point to GDP growth slowing sharply to 2.5% y/y at the start of Q3, were distorted by working-day effects. Even so, the underlying trend seems to be one... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016) The surprisingly strong batch of Q2 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe released today suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a robust 3.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in Q1. We... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) June’s strong activity data from Poland were flattered by working day effects, but the underlying trend seems pretty strong. Indeed, the figures suggest that GDP growth may have picked up to around 3... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off Brexit concerns…for now The Polish MPC used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to suggest that it was broadly unconcerned about the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the domestic economy, but we think... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Today’s batch of Polish activity data for May was disappointing and as things stand growth in Q2 is shaping up to be a little slower than Q1’s 3.0% y/y. But the slowdown has been modest and today’s... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The strength of Polish activity data for April, released today, confirms our suspicion that the weakness seen in Q1 was likely to prove temporary. Indeed, it looks like the economy expanded by around... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw offices rental value falls far from over Solid employment growth will support strong occupier demand for Warsaw offices. But , the city’s huge development pipeline will again push rents lower in both 2016 and 2017. As such, we expect prime... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The disappointing Polish activity data for March suggest that overall GDP growth may have slipped below 3% y/y. However, we don’t think this marks the start of a sharp slowdown; indeed, we expect... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC conference points to rates staying on hold The Polish MPC made it clear once again at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference that it’s not likely to loosen monetary policy in the near future. Although inflation will remain subdued, so... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The slightly weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for last month, of -0.8% y/y, may at the margin make interest rate cuts more likely. However, given the restrained comments from last week’s... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
