Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s batch of Polish activity data paints a worrying picture of the health of the economy at the start of this year, even taking into account distortions due to working-day effects. However, as... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The fall in Polish inflation in January, to a weaker-than-expected -0.7% y/y, appears to be due to a decline in core inflation. Accordingly, these figures raise the risk that the new-look MPC will... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2015) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2015 GDP, which showed an expansion of 3.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth picked up in Q4. This appears to be due to strengthening investment... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for December suggest that overall GDP may have expanded by as much as 4% y/y in Q4 of last year. 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s Belka cautions against rate cuts Polish National Bank Governor Marek Belka used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to warn incoming MPC members that there was little to warrant looser monetary policy, but with inflation... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s populist shift bodes poorly for zloty & MT growth The lurch to a more populist policymaking agenda in Poland hasn’t made much difference to the near-term economic outlook, but it will harm medium-term growth prospects and, more immediately, depress... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Flash CPI (Dec.) The 0.5% y/y fall in Polish consumer prices was larger than we had expected and, coming alongside the latest fall in oil prices, raises the risk that inflation will remain in negative territory in the... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) The latest batch of Russian activity data, released today, show that the recovery slowed last month and, worryingly, this came before the latest fall in oil prices. In contrast to Russia, November’s... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Flash CPI (Oct.) The larger-than-expected 0.8% y/y fall in Polish consumer prices last month is likely to reinforce the MPC’s dovish stance. And interest rate cuts could come back onto the agenda, particularly if the... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Inv. & IP (Sep.) & Poland IP (Sep.) September’s activity data from Russia suggest that while the downturn in industry seems to have bottomed out, the slump in consumer spending has deepened. Retail sales are now falling at their... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we fear a shift to populism in Poland? Rising support for the opposition Law and Justice party ahead of Poland’s parliamentary election on 25th October has raised concerns about a move towards more populist policymaking. We think that any... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will new office development depress rental growth in Poland? The Polish regional cities are seeing strong demand from the BPO/SSC sectors. But the office space development pipeline has responded equally robustly. Therefore, although demand growth is set to... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC dovish, but rate cuts don’t seem to be on the cards Having left the policy interest rate on hold at 1.5% earlier today, the Polish MPC sounded relatively cautious about the downside risks to the inflation outlook. The Council doesn’t seem to be in the... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
