Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue The breakdown of Q1 GDP data showed that strong domestic demand supported expansions in Hungary and Poland, despite severe virus waves, whereas another fall in household spending held back Czechia’s... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) The m/m fall in industrial production and retail sales in Poland in April confirmed that the country’s third virus wave caused the economy to start the quarter on a soft note. But with new virus cases... 24th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the macro implications of the “Polish Deal” The “Polish Deal” outlined by the ruling Law and Justice party over the weekend strengthens the shift in policy since 2015 towards higher social welfare spending and support for families. Fiscal... 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q1 2021, First Estimate) Poland’s economy performed a little worse than most had expected in Q1 and the tightening of restrictions to curb a third wave of COVID-19 means that quarterly growth in Q2 is likely to be slower... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) Polish industrial production and retail sales data for March were much stronger than expected in light of the third virus wave and recent tightening of containment measures across Europe. The big... 22nd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) The latest Polish activity data for February were a little weaker than expected which, combined with the growing headwinds to the industrial sector and the reimposition of virus containment measures... 19th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP extends pause, policy to stay loose for some time The Polish central bank’s latest forecasts, published this afternoon, tell a story in which the economic recovery will strengthen over the coming years and inflationary pressures will pick up strongly... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) September’s batch of Polish activity data confirmed that the economy rebounded strongly in Q3, with GDP growth likely to have increased from -8.2% y/y in Q2 to -2.5% y/y. But this strength came before... 21st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s current account surplus is here to stay A collapse in foreign firms’ reinvested earnings and a stronger recovery in goods exports than imports have caused Poland’s current account surplus to swell to record levels during the pandemic. While... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Polish activity data for August show that the pace of the recovery slowed as pent-up demand following the loosening of lockdown measures eased. The recovery will probably continue over... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) July’s batch of Polish activity data provides further evidence that industrial production and retail sales have rebounded quickly towards pre-virus levels. The rise in localised virus cases does not... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slow consumer recovery to hold back Polish retail rents The outlook for the Polish economy is better than in much of Europe. However, we still expect retail rents to end the year lower than in 2019, with the recent rebound in retail spending unlikely to be... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) The rebound in Polish industrial production and retail sales in June suggests that the contraction in GDP in Q2 may be in the order of 4% y/y, much smaller than the 8-9% y/y we had expected. Activity... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will Poland’s central bank do next? Poland’s central bank appears to have become concerned about the strength of the zloty recently and the negative impact this could have on the pace of the economic recovery, suggesting that it is... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: a regional bright spot The early signs are that activity is recovering quickly in Poland as lockdown measures are lifted. Provided that the virus is contained, we think that Poland will experience the smallest contraction... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The collapse in the Polish activity data for March came on the back of two strong months and suggests that the economy probably avoided a contraction in Q1 and grew at around 2.0% y/y. But the slump... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
