Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish industry shrugging off euro-zone weakness Polish industry has been surprisingly resilient this year, largely reflecting impressive demand from the domestic market. We still expect weak external demand to weigh more heavily on growth in the... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s strong batch of activity data suggests that, following an already-impressive Q1, Poland’s economy accelerated at the start of Q2. Our GDP Tracker points to growth of 5.3% y/y in April. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Warsaw office rents really turned a corner? Warsaw office demand is likely to slow over the next two years, while completions of new space will increase. But, we still expect to see an overall rise in prime CBD rents in the next few years. 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s mixed messages, Polish rate expectations The Turkish central bank’s messaging to investors has become even more confused over the past week and the institution’s damaged credibility means that it will be even more difficult for policymakers... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Apr.) The rise in Polish inflation to an 18-month high of 2.2% y/y in April was driven almost entirely by a pickup in food and fuel inflation. It appears that core inflation remained weak (at 1.5% y/y)... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Rising inflation won’t prompt interest rate hikes Polish inflation is likely to rise over the coming quarters, but we don’t think that will prompt a policy response. With growth set to slow next year and the ECB likely to relaunch QE, we expect that... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) March’s stronger-than-expected activity data suggest that Poland’s economy has, so far at least, shrugged off weakness in Germany. We estimate that GDP growth came in at around 4.5% y/y in Q1 – only a... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) February’s activity data suggest that the Polish economy has, so far at least, shrugged off the recent weakness in Germany and continued to grow at a rapid pace in Q1. 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weaker growth, central banks’ dovish turn Data published over the past week provided further evidence that the region’s economies slowed at the start of this year. This, coming alongside lower inflation, has resulted in a dovish shift by... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) January’s Polish industrial production data will help to allay fears about an abrupt slowdown. But it still appears that Poland’s economy as a whole lost steam at the start of this year and, as... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office sector outperforms; retail in the doldrums Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2018) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2018 GDP, which showed an expansion of 5.1% over the year as a whole, suggests that the economy slowed in Q4. Inventories appear to have exerted a sizeable... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) A soft batch of December activity data suggests that GDP growth slowed a touch at the end of last year. Over 2018 as a whole, it appears that the Polish economy grew by a robust 5%, but the slowdown... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal support will boost Polish & Czech economies Strong budget positions in Poland and the Czech Republic will allow governments to ramp up spending next year. That’s one key reason why we expect that GDP growth in 2019 in these countries will be... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly PiS backs down in EU row, Polish hawks getting louder This week’s U-turn by Poland’s government over a controversial judicial reform suggests that policymakers are adopting a less divisive stance in the run-up to next year’s elections. While this is... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
