Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may... 13th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q2 2021) The 1.9% q/q expansion in Poland’s GDP in Q2 left the economy 0.5% above its pre-pandemic size and we expect another strong reading for Q3 as activity in consumer-facing sectors continues to recover... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP a bit more hawkish, but poles apart from the CBR A slew of comments from policymakers at Poland’s central bank (the NBP) this week suggest that the probability of the central bank delivering a rate hike before the end of this year has increased... 6th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The PMIs for July suggest that supply chain disruptions weighed on output in Czechia and Poland and continued to put upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the releases suggest that manufacturing... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Activity rebounding as economies re-open The region’s economies have continued to rebound strongly over the past month as virus outbreaks have largely been contained and restrictions have been lifted. Surveys of sentiment in the services... 28th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Poland Activity Data (Jun.) Polish industrial production and retail sales figures for June suggest that the rebound in economic activity softened a touch at the end of Q2, but GDP still looks to have expanded by 2.0% q/q in Q2... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP in no rush to tighten policy Poland’s central bank left interest rates on hold today and, while it revised up its GDP growth and inflation forecasts, there was little sign in the accompanying press statement that the balance on... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey dollarisation, Ukraine-IMF, Russia & Poland rates Turkey’s central bank took steps this week to tackle deposit dollarisation in the banking sector, although these efforts will fail to make headway in the absence of a stronger commitment to rein in... 2nd July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish retail sales rebounded strongly in May as restrictions were lifted, while industry continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP looks set to return to its pre-virus level in Q2 and we expect the... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: Hawks to remain in the minority … for now While policymakers in Hungary and Czechia look set to lift interest rates from their pandemic lows later this week, we doubt that Poland’s central bank will follow suit this year. That said, with... 21st June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue The breakdown of Q1 GDP data showed that strong domestic demand supported expansions in Hungary and Poland, despite severe virus waves, whereas another fall in household spending held back Czechia’s... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) The m/m fall in industrial production and retail sales in Poland in April confirmed that the country’s third virus wave caused the economy to start the quarter on a soft note. But with new virus cases... 24th May 2021 · 2 mins read
