Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s spat, Poland-EU dispute and the zloty

A diplomatic spat between Turkey and its Western allies this week was quickly resolved, but it highlighted how vulnerable the lira is to geopolitical developments. And comments from Turkey’s central...

29th October 2021 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Poland Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Czech GDP (Q3)

The rise in Poland’s headline inflation rate to 6.8% y/y in October opens the door for the central bank to deliver a 25bp at next week’s MPC meeting. Elsewhere, Czechia’s economy performed a little...

29th October 2021 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Virus outbreaks shine spotlight on vaccine hesitancy

The surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Eastern Europe has prompted the re-imposition of restrictions and it looks like measures will be stepped up, weighing on recoveries in Q4. Tight restrictions...

28th October 2021 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Renewed virus waves cast clouds over the recovery

COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere...

26th October 2021 · 12 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Warsaw retail rents to recover but not surge

After a fall this year, we expect Warsaw retail rents to return to growth in 2022. That said, the city’s reliance on office workers means that the shift to remote working will weigh on retail spending...

21st October 2021 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Poland Activity Data (Sep.)

The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy ended Q3 with solid momentum, and GDP is likely to have risen by 1.6% q/q (4.7% y/y) in Q3 as a whole. But with the re-opening boost fading and...

21st October 2021 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds

The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation...

20th October 2021 · 28 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

CEE: rapid wage growth to fuel above-target inflation

Central and Eastern Europe is one of the regions of the world where we think that the risk of sustained higher inflation in the next few years is greatest. The Phillips curve is alive and we think the...

13th October 2021 · 19 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland-EU conflict, CEE tightening, auto sector woes

The decision this week by Poland's Constitutional Court to rule that some EU laws are in conflict with the Polish Constitution has sent shockwaves through Europe and raises the possibility that the...

8th October 2021 · 7 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

CEE investment recovery to pick up from 2022

We think a greater reliance on foreign capital and tighter monetary conditions will leave CEE investment activity lagging the euro-zone in H2. Overall, transactions are set to end the year 5% lower...

8th October 2021 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

NBP catches everyone off guard with a surprise hike

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly hiked its policy rate by 40bp to 0.50% at today’s MPC meeting, but the accompanying communications were underwhelming and suggest that the rate hike was...

6th October 2021 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Loose fiscal policy in CEE, Russia’s natural gas windfall

Government draft budgets approved for 2022 this week in Czechia and Poland and further details of social support in Hungary suggest that fiscal policy will remain supportive of growth in Central...

1st October 2021 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)

The manufacturing PMIs for September provide additional signs that supply constraints continued to weigh on output in Central Europe, although it seems that price pressures eased further.

1st October 2021 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Re-opening boost fades as supply disruptions mount

Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to...

29th September 2021 · 15 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.)

The continued fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September provides further evidence that the regional recovery in Central and Eastern Europe has slowed in Q3 as supply disruptions...

29th September 2021 · 2 mins read