RBNZ will deliver final 25bp cut in November In September 2024, we predicted that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower interest rates to 2.25%. At that time, the OIS markets foresaw rates only falling to around 3%. With the RBNZ this week slashing …
10th October 2025
Takaichi victory upends interest rate expectations The victory of Sanae Takaichi in Saturday’s LDP leadership elections sent shockwaves across financial markets as the yen plunged, bond yields climbed and the Topix surged. While opinion polls had seen …
We now think the yen will appreciate a bit more slowly against the US dollar than we’d previously forecast, but we’re revising up our projections for Japan’s stock market. The surprise victory of Sanae Takaichi, who is widely seen as a fiscal and monetary …
The return of La Niña conditions could potentially affect agricultural production in key exporting regions. However, if expectations for a weak and short episode prove accurate, the broader impact on agricultural prices is likely to be small. By way of …
9th October 2025
The gradual decline of volatility in the US Treasury market over recent months has helped underpin the buoyant mood in equity and credit markets. But, even if Treasury market volatility does not flare up again, it is unlikely to fall much further. In …
The gold price rally has inflated the Turkish central bank’s foreign assets by $30bn this year, strengthening Turkey’s external position but creating an illusion of progress in the rebalancing process underway. Higher gold prices are unlikely to …
China has substantially expanded its rare earth export controls – these now apply not only to a wider range of elements and magnets but, on paper least, any goods that contain them in meaningful amounts. The move risks complicating trade talks with the US …
A path to peace US President Trump announced overnight that Israel and Hamas had reached a provisional peace deal which, if approved by both sides, puts the region on a path to an end of the war and removes a downside risk to the economic outlook for the …
The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK is set to fall and the fiscal risk premium on French …
Easing in Brazil getting closer, Banxico to stick with 25bp cuts The small increases in inflation in Brazil and Mexico in September are unlikely to have a material impact on the next interest rate meetings in both countries. In Brazil, while an easing …
Multifamily is set to be a top-performing sector over our five-year forecast, but returns will differ significantly across the 17 metros in our coverage. Miami and D.C. are likely to struggle as persistent strong supply weighs on NOIs and values, limiting …
The introduction of the EU’s Emissions Trading System 2 will add only a small amount to headline inflation in the euro-zone in 2027, perhaps just 0.1 percentage points. So ETS2 is unlikely to be decisive in determining whether the ECB hits its inflation …
The recent corruption scandal involving flood-control projects has cast a shadow over the Philippines’ infrastructure drive. Yet despite this, the country has seen substantial improvements in roads, ports, and digital connectivity over the past decade. …
Quantitative tightening has not been the main driver of higher bond yields in recent years, but it has contributed. With the process now at or near an end in the US and Canada, the threat that further rises in yields might harm economic activity has …
Our new CE Capital Value Lead Indicator suggests that all-property capital growth may finally turn positive on an annual basis in H2 2025. But importantly , it also suggests that any growth this year will be marginal and that there is a downside risk to …
We recently held an online client briefing (watch a recording here ) to discuss the US economic outlook. Here we answer some of the most frequently asked questions, including around AI's role in shaping the outlook. Our US Economic Outlook argues that …
Dovish BSP hints at further easing The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut its main policy rate by a further 25bps today (to 4.75%) and the relatively dovish tone of its accompanying statement suggests that more easing is likely. We expect at least …
Japan may record a rare budget surplus this year which means that the incoming PM has more fiscal leeway than is generally acknowledged. However, as that improvement won’t be confirmed until late-2026, it wouldn’t stop bond markets from baulking at the …
Budget uncertainty continues to restrain housing activity September’s RICS survey provides further evidence that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November has put the housing market on ice, particularly in London. If taxes on property were …
Broad support for looser policy, despite lingering inflation concerns The minutes of the Fed’s mid-September FOMC meeting confirm that “most participants observed that it was appropriate to move the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more …
8th October 2025
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is coming. Set to begin in 2026, it will require EU importers to pay for the carbon emitted in the production of goods they bring into the bloc – effectively extending the ‘polluter pays’ principle to …
OPEC+ undershoots, copper goes for gold OPEC+’s decision to raise its output quota by 137,000 bpd in November confounded reports of a larger rise in the run-up to the decision and provided short-lived support to Brent crude prices. In any case, the …
NBP delivers dovish surprise, but scope for cuts close to being exhausted The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.50%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (including ourselves), although we think the …
We held an online Drop-in session yesterday (see here for a recording) to discuss the US economic outlook. This Update answers several of the questions we received, including the role that AI will play. Our US Economic Outlook argues that the US is set …
Given that “FOMO” appears to be creeping into the gold market, it has become even harder to objectively value gold. In our view, gold prices seem likely to grind higher in nominal terms over the next couple of years, but the pace of the current rally will …
We're hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Wednesday 12th November to discuss if the Chancellor’s second Budget on 26th November will be as big and as bad for the economy as her first, and if it will dampen or ignite the …
NBR to stay on hold despite weak economy The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite signs that the economy is struggling in response to recent fiscal tightening, we think interest rates will be left on …
The global economy will remain relatively resilient in the face of mounting headwinds. However, growth will become increasingly unbalanced, with the US leading the way while Europe and China struggle. As we anticipated in our Q2 Global Economic Outlook , …
Our Latin America economists hosted this special post-election briefing on what the results mean for Argentina’s economy and markets. In this session, the team addressed: Whether the election results have strengthened or weakened Milei’s reform mandate …
We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, but we don’t think that it will do much to raise growth prospects elsewhere. Meanwhile, we forecast …
The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI inflation will fall further than most expect next year …
We expect the UK stock market will continue to underperform its more tech-heavy US counterpart as enthusiasm for AI continues to grow. What’s more, if the bubble in AI were to burst, we think there is no guarantee that the large gap in valuations between …
The ongoing investigation into corruption in the Philippines brings the risk of further protests over the coming months. So long as any unrest is limited in scale and duration, the economic and financial market impact is likely to be limited. The bigger …
The RBNZ today dealt the New Zealand dollar another blow, but we think it will recover before long and that the Australian dollar will stop falling. The same can’t be said, though, for the European currencies that have struggled alongside the kiwi and …
A pause, not an end to the easing cycle In a surprise move, Thailand’s central bank (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. However, it also signalled that this was unlikely to mark the end of the easing cycle. With growth set to remain weak …
German industry still in deep trouble The slump in German industrial production in August was partly due to temporary car plant closures for the summer holidays, which should prove temporary. But that wasn’t the whole story and previous signs of a …
GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with underlying inflation set to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, we expect the Bank to resume its tightening cycle in January and lift its policy rate …
Inflation set to fall significantly in the coming months CPIF inflation edged down in September and is likely to fall much more significantly next year – to around just 1%. Despite that, we think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate on hold for the …
While the economic case for tighter monetary policy remains intact, we suspect that the Bank of Japan will use the pressure by Japan’s incoming government as an opportunity to delay rate hikes until January. Just one week ago, the OIS markets thought that …
RBNZ will lower rates to 2.25% The RBNZ signalled that further reductions are on the cards when it slashed the overnight cash rate by 50bp today and we think it will eventually lower rates to 2.25%. The RBNZ’s decision to cut the cash rate from 3.0% to …
Mainland China’s office market has been in a prolonged downturn since 2018 as structural headwinds, including weak economic growth, cautious corporate hiring, and rampant new supply have kept vacancy high and rising. We expect this pattern to persist, …
Wage growth will remain strong enough to prompt BoJ tightening The sharp slowdown in wage growth in August largely reflects the end of the summer bonus season and regular earnings growth seems to be settling around 2%-2.5%. According to the preliminary …
While long-term government bond yields have stabilised today, political developments in France and Japan over recent days highlight how fiscal uncertainty continues to put upward pressure on long-term bond yields. We think steeper yield curves are here to …
7th October 2025
CBK’s easing cycle has further to run The Central Bank of Kenya cut interest rates today, by 25bp, to its lowest rate in more than two years at 9.25% and, with inflation likely to stay contained, we think there’s scope for rates to fall to a below …
Trade deficit widens again as additional US tariffs announced The worsening in Canada’s goods trade balance in August was for all the wrong reasons, with exports falling and imports rising. Admittedly, unwrought gold played a notable role in flows in …
The euro has had a stellar year so far, holding onto most of the gains that it made following Germany’s fiscal announcement in March and the US tariff shock in April. But we think it is more likely to weaken than strengthen over the coming quarters as the …
Upcoming EPC requirements, coupled with reduced occupier demand due to remote work, mean investors are shunning secondary offices, triggering a sharp decline in capital values. Our new dashboard on office EPCs across major cities will therefore be an …
Ahead of the Budget on 26 November, our economists discussed the potential impact of the Chancellor’s second Budget in a special in-person roundtable held on Wednesday 12 November . The event offered the opportunity to hear their latest thinking, ask …
Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook explains why we remain far above consensus on the S&P 500 in 2026 – and why other tech-heavy equity markets may not be far behind. Economists from our Markets team hosted an online briefing to unpack the case for …
