Fiscal tightening to cause inflation spike in Romania Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While inflation may be lower …
11th July 2025
Trump keeps South Africa in his tariff crosshairs South Africa was threatened with a 30% reciprocal tariff again and, while the economic hit should be manageable, the uneasy relationship with the US suggests that an even higher tariff rate remains a …
You've got mail Canada found itself among the unlucky recipients of a letter from President Donald Trump this week, in which a 35% tariff was threatened to come into effect from August 1 st unless more was done to stop cross-border fentanyl flows. Though …
Inflation picture becoming more benign The raft of June inflation figures released across the region this week were encouraging. Headline inflation fell in Mexico , Colombia and Chile (and by more than expected in the latter two) while inflation in Brazil …
Our latest UK Economic Outlook explains how the Chancellor’s likely tax hikes in November’s Budget risk adding to the existing drags on economic growth and the labour market, resulting in the Bank of England cutting interest rates further than most …
22nd September 2025
The LDP’s weak performance in the Upper House elections signals pressure for looser fiscal policy, just as the Bank of Japan is constrained from tackling rising inflation in the face of tariff threats. With Japanese government bond yields pushing at …
21st July 2025
Our US team hosted a special online briefing just after the July CPI release, all about the US economic and policy outlook. During this session, the team answered questions from the audience and addressed key issues, including: What the latest inflation …
7th August 2025
Tariffs in effect. Inflation under debate. Divided central banks. Geopolitical strains. Equities at record highs. After a busy summer of economic, geopolitical and financial market maneuverings, what should investors expect in the remaining months of …
18th August 2025
Two years ago, we argued that structural forces – from AI-driven productivity gains to ageing demographics and higher government borrowing – would push equilibrium real interest rates in the US and across developed markets far above what markets were then …
11th September 2025
India has been a global bright spot, but it now faces increased uncertainty as the world fractures into US- and China-led economic blocs. Its recent growth run is at risk in the face of steep US tariffs and the absence of a trade deal. At the same time, …
28th October 2025
In this special post-Budget session, our macro and property economists assessed the implications for commercial property returns. The team discussed how this Budget could have immediate consequences for the residential market, while looking further out …
10th November 2025
Will the US economy continue to outperform on the back of the AI boom? How will trade tensions shape global macro outcomes? Should investors expect further highs in equities – and brace for more bond market jitters? The World in 2026 is our definitive …
26th November 2025
Our economists were online on Wednesday 10th December, shortly after the statement and the Powell press conference, to deliver their take on the decision and the latest communications. … US Drop-In: Fed December meeting – A tight call and the 2026 policy …
24th November 2025
The Bank of England and European Central Bank’s final decisions of 2025 follow a week after the Fed’s and close a year in which all three have been trying with mixed success to steer inflation back to 2 percent. What will they do in their last policy …
20th November 2025
The sheer volume of current geopolitical noise can be bewildering for investors. How is the ebb and flow of US-China tensions affecting global economic activity? Is a more aggressive US foreign policy fundamentally changing macroeconomic outcomes? Are …
12th January 2026
South African financial assets have made a strong start to the year, supported by the perceived political stability of the Government of National Unity and better terms of trade. But risks to the outlook remain. The surge in metals prices may run out of …
27th January 2026
Concerns about the direction of policymaking in Indonesia have intensified since President Prabowo took office in late-2024. Markets are signaling anxiety over creaking fiscal discipline and the potential erosion of central bank independence following the …
21st January 2026
As 2026 begins, the drivers for Asian markets are crystallising. Geopolitical headlines remain a constant, while equity markets continue to lean on a narrow – and potentially fragile – set of narratives. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is …
7th January 2026
The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu adds fresh uncertainty to France’s economic and market outlook. What can President Macron do to break the political deadlock over the public finances? Should investors brace for new elections? And how …
6th October 2025
François Bayrou has survived eight no-confidence votes since becoming France’s Prime Minister late last year. But this Monday’s confidence vote – called by Bayrou himself – could yet bring down his government. With France’s strained public finances at the …
2nd September 2025
The sacking of Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati marks the latest twist in a crisis that has been engulfing what until recently was one of Asia’s standout growth stories. Our economists hosted a special online briefing to answer client …
8th September 2025
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is coming. Set to begin in 2026, it will require EU importers to pay for the carbon emitted in the production of goods they bring into the bloc – effectively extending the ‘polluter pays’ principle to …
8th October 2025
Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook explains why we remain far above consensus on the S&P 500 in 2026 – and why other tech-heavy equity markets may not be far behind. Economists from our Markets team hosted an online briefing to unpack the case for …
7th October 2025
Four months after the arrest of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu reignited political risk in Turkey, market conditions have stabilised. The lira has firmed, capital is flowing back in, and reserves are rebuilding. But is the macro adjustment on solid …
The Reserve Bank of Australia has consistently advocated a cautious approach to policy easing. But with economic momentum fading and the labour market showing signs of softening, the case for unwinding its restrictive monetary stance is growing. In that …
22nd July 2025
India is facing fresh tensions with the Trump administration. The president is threatening steep tariffs in response to India’s continued oil trade with Russia – even as he’s reportedly preparing to hold direct talks with Vladimir Putin. How this all …
29th July 2025
Our senior economists from our US, Europe and UK teams hosted this online briefing to dive into the latest decisions and comms from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, and to answer client questions. … Central Bank Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank …
13th August 2025
Global property markets have been recovering through the first half of 2025, with tariffs and other uncertainties showing only limited impact so far. But the recovery remains slow: REITs continue to trade at sizeable discounts to NAV, closed-end fund …
19th August 2025
Our Markets economists hosted this online briefing on the state of the equity market and the role that confidence in AI’s promise continues to play in driving it. They answered client questions and set out the key issues, including: • Why we think the AI …
17th November 2025
Our EM Financial Risk Indicators are a proprietary early warning system for tracking vulnerabilities across the major emerging markets. In this special fourth quarter briefing, our EM team walked clients through the highlights of our latest refresh, …
27th October 2025
Against a backdrop of higher mortgage rates and stuttering employment, the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November has put the UK housing market on ice. Is this the start of a sustained downturn, or just a temporary pause? Our UK team hosted …
Our economists hosted this fast focused briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves’ statement to the House of Commons, to discuss what the Budget means for the economy, housing and markets, and to answer questions from the audience. … UK Drop-In: The Autumn …
3rd November 2025
Asia’s factories sit at the heart of the global AI build-out – but who are the real economic winners, and what happens if the bubble bursts? I n this latest briefing on the major forces shaping Asian macro and markets, our economists explored the region’s …
Russia and China declared a “no limits” partnership in 2022, but the constraints on their economic ties are increasingly obvious. In this special online briefing, our EM team set out the main findings from their new analysis of the economic reality behind …
In the face of tariffs, mixed economic data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the CRE market has shown a slow but steady recovery path this year. But the outlook for the asset class and many of its sectors remains cloudy, so what’s coming next? Our US …
13th November 2025
Our proprietary China Activity Proxy shows growth running well below the official figures. Will this weakness persist into 2026 in the face of Trump tariffs and structural headwinds, or can government efforts to boost consumption and rein in overcapacity …
1st October 2025
Our North America team were online shortly after the Bank of Canada decision to unpack the Bank’s latest communications and baseline forecasts. They explained why we expect deeper cuts over the next year than markets anticipate, and outline the main risks …
23rd October 2025
Our UK team hosted a 20-minute online briefing to unpack the latest CPI data, discuss the implications for inflation and policy and explain how they shape our non-consensus Bank Rate view. The team address key issues, including: The forces likely to drive …
20th October 2025
Brazil now faces the highest non-reciprocal US tariff rates in the world – a stark sign of the breakdown in US-Brazil relations. And these tariffs come as Brazil’s balance of payments weakens, as its growth slows and as attention begins to shift to next …
15th September 2025
Japan’s search for a new prime minister has upended its political landscape – and the outcome will shape the country’s economic and market outlook. Our Japan and Markets economists hosted a special online briefing all about Japan’s leadership upheaval and …
13th October 2025
Our EM Financial Risk Indicators are a proprietary early warning system for tracking vulnerabilities across the major emerging markets. In this special briefing, our EM team discussed the highlights of our latest refresh, showing in which economies risks …
31st July 2025
Gold prices continue to set record highs, oil remains under downward pressure, and OPEC+ is facing renewed questions about its long-term cohesion. Against this backdrop, our Commodities team hosted an online briefing to examine the outlook for gold, oil …
10th September 2025
In the face of tariffs, mixed economic data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the CRE market has shown a slow but steady recovery path this year. But the outlook for the asset class and many of its sectors remains cloudy, so what’s coming next? Our …
What could protests in Iran mean for crude prices? Is Venezuelan oil output about to surge? Will gold (and silver) continue selling at record high prices? Does copper's supply-demand story justify ever-higher prices? It hasn’t been a quiet start to the …
19th December 2025
The transatlantic row over Greenland’s sovereignty intensified over the weekend following Donald Trump’s threat to ratchet up tariffs on European economies until Denmark agrees to sell. How serious is this latest escalation, and what does it mean for the …
19th January 2026
What has driven the dollar’s recent sharp fall? Are dedollarisation fears back in charge amid heightened political uncertainty? What support will the US macro narrative lend the currency? Join Deputy Chief Markets Economist hosted this online briefing on …
What will a Fed under political fire signal at its first policy meeting of 2026? And what will February’s decisions reveal about our convictions that the ECB will pivot to rate cuts in 2026, and that the Bank of England will ease more aggressively than …
Will the Chancellor’s second Budget be as big and as bad for the economy as her first? Will it dampen or ignite the gilt market’s fiscal fears? Our UK economists hosted this online briefing to preview what to expect from the Budget on 26 th November - …
6th November 2025
OPEC+ on pause. Gold off the boil. Copper at record highs. Cocoa and sugar prices slumping. Recent narratives in commodity markets are being tested amid shifting geopolitics and changing supply-demand dynamics. But are these narratives really changing – …
Mixed signals from recent data have complicated the RBA’s job. Although the recovery appears to be on firm footing, the labour market has cooled considerably, with unemployment hitting a four-year high. Against this backdrop, the Q3 CPI report is likely …
21st October 2025
