This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Few signs Budget influenced borrowing but households saved a bit more November’s money and lending figures suggest that while the pre-Budget speculation about tax rises had …
5th January 2026
While the capture of Venezuelan president Maduro by American forces has dominated headlines, financial markets seem unperturbed. We agree with the implicit view that the near-term economic and financial implications are minor. But the geopolitical …
We aren’t convinced that the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve despite the recent acceleration in bank lending. Nonetheless, there are few signs that BoJ rate hikes are resulting in tighter financial conditions and we’re sticking to our view that …
The removal of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the US is unlikely to have meaningful near-term economic consequences for the global economy. But its political and geopolitical ramifications will reverberate. Venezuela’s global economic importance …
4th January 2026
We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 60,000 in December, with the unemployment rate edging back down to 4.5%. Some signs of improvement The 69,000 gain in private payrolls in November was once again heavily dependent on a 64,000 rise from health …
2nd January 2026
But inflation differentials to limit the hit to exports Earlier this week, the onshore renminbi strengthened beyond 7.00 per US dollar for the first time since May 2023. (See Chart 1.) Over the course of 2025, the Chinese currency appreciated 3.3% against …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Disappointing end to a soft year December’s 0.4% m/m decline in Nationwide house prices rounds off a tough year for the housing market and suggests the combination of still-high …
The December manufacturing PMI readings for Asian economies remain consistent with generally soft manufacturing activity. However, the PMIs have recently been a poor guide to the hard activity data in several economies. Exports from most countries have …
Australia’s house price rally lost some steam in December and if we’re right that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest rates as soon as February this slowdown has further to run. House prices across Australia’s eight capital cities slowed from …
China Chart Pack (Dec 25) …
31st December 2025
Construction activity bounces back but wider domestic weakness remains This report was first published on Wednesday 31 st December, covering the official PMIs and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the RatingDog services and composite …
Minutes reveal broad support for a pause The minutes of the FOMC’s December meeting, when it voted to lower the fed funds target range by 25bp to between 3.50% and 3.75%, are somewhat outdated given the slew of delayed data releases since then. …
30th December 2025
The office sector may be turning a corner, but there remain big differences in metro performance. Southern metros look set to dominate the winners, with Austin, Miami and Dallas coming out on top for office employment and demand prospects. Houston takes …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in November as export strength helped to boost industrial activity. But, while China’s exports have proved resilient in the face of US tariffs, domestic demand has remained lacklustre. The economy …
Green shoots of a housing recovery The healthy 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in October adds to evidence that the housing market has regained some momentum following the 75bp fall in mortgage rates earlier this year. Prices are now on track for an annual …
The Malaysian ringgit has appreciated steadily against the US dollar this year and is set to be Asia’s best-performing currency in 2025. While the appreciation has raised competitiveness concerns, these look overstated: the real effective exchange rate …
Japan’s fiscal health has continued to improve. While the expansionary measures taken by PM Takaichi mean that the budget deficit won’t narrow any further next year, it will remain very low. And with nominal GDP growth set to remain strong, the ratio of …
Asia Chart Pack (December 2025) …
29th December 2025
Economy set to bounce back At first glance the November activity data appear to be a mixed bag. However, a look under the hood suggests that the economy is poised to rebound firmly from its Q3 contraction. Taking industrial production first, the 2.6% m/m …
26th December 2025
US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) …
23rd December 2025
Manufacturing still stagnant The rise in industrial production in November looks less impressive with a peek at the breakdown, which shows manufacturing output flat last month, and considering the move simply reverses a fall in October. Still, the FOMC …
Economy remains strong – as consumers take over The 4.3% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was well above the consensus estimate at 3.3%, but broadly in line with our own 4.5% estimate. A lot of other forecasters missed that this is essentially a …
Weakness in October was more than just the teachers’ strike The weakness of GDP over October and November raises the chance that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter. Even accounting for the effect of strikes in various service sectors, that weakness …
So far CEE markets have proved more resilient to the slowdown in European retail rents. While risks still skew to the upside, we expect that CEE retail rent growth rates will slow further, with average increases in Warsaw and Prague undershooting those in …
Food CPI inflation has been elevated in several advanced economies in recent months, namely Japan, the UK and Canada, but we expect price pressures to ease in most cases. A combination of lower agricultural commodity prices, and a looser labour market in …
22nd December 2025
China’s green technology exports rebounded at a strong pace in year-on-year terms as China continues to reorient shipments towards emerging markets (EMs) amid US tariffs. While there remains a risk of other EMs following Mexico’s path and raising trade …
This recovery in commercial real estate is unique. Across the US, Europe, and Asia, it has been defined by persistent weakness in both investment and prices. On this special episode of The Weekly Briefing , Chief Real Estate Economist Kiran Raichura and …
Korea’s equity market has delivered an exceptional rally this year, driven by the restoration of political stability, long-overdue corporate governance reforms and strong exposure to the global AI boom. While further gains are likely in 2026, driven by …
As the year draws to a close, the key themes and questions that emerge for 2026 are in many ways familiar. Will the AI boom continue? Can the government bond market keep muddling through? And can the dollar recover after a difficult 2025? In short, our …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. GDP growth weak, but a bit more balanced Although GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% q/q in Q3, the shape of growth is a bit healthier and less reliant on the public sector than …
The final full week of the year delivered a smorgasbord of shutdown-affected data releases, some fresher than others and some downright rotten. Dubious disinflation November’s CPI report was the most dubious. A lack of data collection due to the shutdown …
19th December 2025
Today’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise it key policy rate by another 25bp has done nothing to shore up the yen, which has fallen by another ~1% against the US dollar. Admittedly, the central bank’s decision was widely anticipated. But the …
Housing activity firms slightly, though still weak Existing home sales rose to a nine-month high of 4.13m annualised in November and should climb further in the coming months, as deals agreed when borrowing costs fell in the third quarter continue to get …
In our new UK Economic Outlook we outlined the two key developments that we think will define 2026, namely that 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates further than most expect, …
Labour shortages continue to ease The record decline in the population in the third quarter (see here ) was largely due to a slump in international students at the start of the academic year, but temporary worker numbers also declined at a stronger pace …
The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the …
Temporary drivers muddy the picture The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for November is …
The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. To some extent these changes are justified because the economy has been more resilient and recent inflation data have been higher …
This final Commodities Weekly of the year takes stock of our forecasting record in 2025, and summarises our key calls for 2026. Our forecasts for energy prices to fall in 2025 have proved pleasingly accurate. As shown in Chart 1, our end-2025 Brent oil …
Colombia: rate hikes now a real possibility Tonight’s central bank meeting in Colombia will be a close call between a hold and a 25bp hike. In a recent note , we flagged the growing risk of rate hikes in Colombia and warned that a few factors could act as …
MNB opens the door to a Q1 rate cut The decision by the Hungarian central bank to leave its base rate on hold, at 6.50%, for a 15 th consecutive meeting this week was correctly predicted by all 13 analysts polled by LSEG (including ourselves). But there …
US steps up support for key minerals railroad Angola secured additional financing from the US and other partners this week as it looks to press ahead with the Lobito rail project underlining the Trump administration’s transactional approach to the region …
Drop in inflation no barrier to tightening With the outcome of today’s meeting no great surprise, the Bank of Japan used it to lock in expectations that further policy rate increases will follow . One potential obstacle is an imminent fall in inflation. …
CBR delivers another 50bp cut, cautious easing to continue The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation …
Steady growth, easing cycles nearing an end This week we published our quarterly Asia Economic Outlook , which sets out our economic and financial market forecasts for the upcoming year. Recent developments have been broadly encouraging, prompting us to …
But fiscal stance should turn supportive again soon Both our China Activity Proxy and official activity data suggest that China’s growth has been slowing in recent months. That’s likely due in large part to the sharp pullback in fiscal spending since …
In our view, the AI bubble in emerging Market (EM) equities, which drove much of this year’s rally, hasn’t burst yet and could inflate further next year. And while large valuation gaps vis-à-vis the US suggest that the AI bubble in EMs is smaller, we …
When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect the Bank to ultimately raise rates to 1.75% in 2027. The …
