The latest bout of unrest in Indonesia is unlikely to deliver a significant blow to the economy, but it is a symptom of underlying economic weaknesses and highlights political risks that could erode the country’s appeal to foreign investors over time. The …
2nd September 2025
Stable inflation will keep ECB on hold The small increase in headline inflation to 2.1% in August makes little difference for policymakers at the ECB who look certain to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting and probably for several months …
Asia-Pacific all-property capital values showed signs of stabilisation, with a milder 2.5% y/y decline in Q2. Still, the upturn in both investment activity and capital values will be weaker than in any previous cycle, predominantly due to risk-free rates …
While the Bank of Japan is worried that trade tensions will weigh on profits, business investment and wage growth, profits have in fact held up well so far and we expect that to remain the case going forward. And with uncertainty about the US tariff …
Global equities and industrial commodities have been dancing to different tunes in recent years. We suspect that will remain the case through next year. The changing relationships between the prices of global equities and industrial commodities can be …
1st September 2025
Worries that interest rate cuts in Korea are stoking financial risks look overdone. Property prices across most of the country are either flat or falling, while household debt is declining as a share of GDP. Having cut rates by a cumulative 100bps between …
Even though the components of inflation that are directly linked to past inflation rates have played a big role in the recent rebound in CPI inflation, we think their influence will fade over the next couple of years. We expect that to be the case even if …
Net lending to property still booming Net lending to property was strong again in July, reaching £1.8bn. While this was a slightly lower outturn than June, it nevertheless drove an acceleration in the three-month total, which hit £6.0bn. July’s gain was …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. High mortgage rates and the prospect of tax hikes holding back the economy July’s money and lending data show that interest rate cuts are yet to significantly boost economic …
PMIs suggest continued drag from industry The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that Central European …
Strong domestic demand points to rebalancing challenges The much-stronger-than expected Q2 Turkish GDP growth figure of 1.6% q/q (driven by domestic demand) is likely to make the central bank tread cautiously and suggests that the risks to our hawkish …
House prices still struggling to recover The unexpected fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in August shows that the recovery in the housing market after the drag from the rise in stamp duty charges on 1 st April is being held back by weak …
Australian house prices rose at their fastest pace in 18 months in August. With leading indicators suggesting further gains are on the cards, we’re inclined to revise up our forecast for house prices over the coming months. That said, the housing rebound …
The August PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued and we continue to expect manufacturing in the region to struggle in the near term. And with inflation set to remain contained, we think that central banks in the region will continue to …
This report was first published on Monday 1st September, covering the official PMIs and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the RatingDog services and composite PMIs on Wednesday 3rd September. Growth picks up, led by services The …
US Court of Appeals agrees that Trump’s tariffs are unlawful By a 7-4 vote, the Federal Court of Appeals has upheld the earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade (CIT) in May that found President Trump exceeded his authority in imposing …
29th August 2025
A quiet month-end week has seen the dollar stabilise – in spite of the Trump administration’s latest escalation of its attacks on the Fed. The lack of follow-through after those attacks and Fed Chair Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech last week suggests …
Bank’s framework review approaching Speaking at Banco de Mexico’s 100 th anniversary event this week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem steered clear of discussing the economic or policy outlook. However, he offered some useful hints about the Bank’s …
Poland’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week suggests that fiscal policy will be a lot looser than we previously expected over the coming year. The proposed budget deficit for next year was announced at 6.5% of GDP (and the government’s projection …
This week the CBO published updated projections showing that tariffs are now expected to raise $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, up from an earlier estimate of $2.5 trillion. The upwardly revised numbers suggest that tariffs will reduce the deficit …
Economy is confounding expectations Data released today confirmed that India’s economy had a very strong first half of the year. GDP growth confounded expectations and accelerated from 7.4% y/y in Q1 to 7.8% last quarter. (See here for our Data Response …
Bad news mounts for Milei Argentina’s President Milei has been faced with a growing wave of bad news in the past few weeks. For one thing, the latest activity data have come in very weak – the monthly EMAE index contracted for a second consecutive month …
The unprecedented levels of trade uncertainty brought about by US tariffs appear to have had only a limited impact on investment so far. Uncertainty has persisted and our model indicates that there may yet be some damage to investment. But we suspect that …
The still tight rental market and softening outlook for housing activity – due to weak employment, high mortgage rates and growing speculation around property tax rises in the Autumn Budget – suggests rents will continue to rise faster than house prices …
South Africa SWIFT Ban would be severe shock News emerged this week that the South African Treasury was evaluating the risk of the US excluding it from the SWIFT messaging system which is widely used in cross-border payments. These discussions appear to …
Data released on Thursday confirmed that Switzerland’s economy grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q2 as the previous tariff front running ended. This meant the economy averaged growth of 0.4% per quarter in the first half of a year, after adjusting for sporting …
Prospects look poor following second-quarter contraction The contraction in second-quarter GDP was due to a large drag from net trade, which is unlikely to be repeated, but the downward revision to monthly GDP in Jun and preliminary July estimate showing …
Services inflation the one to watch The rise in core PCE prices in July was entirely due to a rise in core services prices, and is further evidence that tariffs are having minimal impact on goods prices. Meanwhile, the rise in real consumer spending …
Higher India tariffs unlikely to shake oil market Despite the introduction of US “secondary” tariffs on India this week as a consequence of its continued purchases of Russian crude oil, the reaction in the oil market was very muted. For context, India …
Economy gathers further momentum but tariff hit still to come The surprise acceleration in India’s GDP growth in Q2 means that the economy is still on course to expand by a world-beating 7% this year, despite the upcoming hit from punitive US tariffs. GDP …
Over the past month, UK gilts have not only been embroiled in a global sell-off in very long dated debt – driven by events in the US – but they have fared worse than many others. Since the start of August, the 30-year gilt yield has risen by 22 basis …
A “China First” policy for AI chips The US Commerce Department began issuing export licences for H20 chips this month. But Nvidia revealed this week that it has assumed zero sales of the China-tailored AI chip in its forward guidance for Q3, due to …
Strong start to Q3 The final estimate of Korea’s second quarter GDP figures due next week are likely to confirm that the economy rebounded strongly last quarter, helped by a jump in consumer spending and exports. And more recent monthly data paint an …
Stable inflation will keep ECB on hold Inflation data released this morning suggest that the euro-zone headline and core inflation rates will have been little changed in August at around 2.0% and 2.3% respectively. This confirms that the ECB is likely to …
The rise in the yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) doesn’t seem to have diminished Japanese investors’ appetite for US Treasuries, and our base case is that will continue. But the risks are growing. JGB yields dipped a little bit today after some …
Car output slumps but labour market very tight The end-month data rush was a mixed bag. On the one hand, there are mounting signs that the economy is losing momentum in response to US tariffs. On the other hand though, the unemployment rate fell to a …
New data muddy the water for RBA The minutes of the RBA’s August meeting published this week showed that the Bank had a clear easing bias. Indeed, the Board asserted that it would need to lower the policy rate further in the coming months to meet its …
Economy will lose momentum this quarter The July activity data were a mixed bag but on balance suggest that the economy will lose momentum this quarter. Perhaps the most eye-catching development was the sharp fall in the unemployment rate, from 2.5% to a …
The US stock market is at an all-time high, thanks in part to rapid earnings growth and expectations for that to continue. But rising valuations have also played their part, to the point where US equity valuations look, at face value, increasingly …
28th August 2025
CBE resumes easing cycle with aggressive cut The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp, to 22.00%, and given our view that inflation will decline further over the rest of the year, we think the policy …
This interactive dashboard presents all of our CE equity forecasts out to end-2027, including price and total return forecasts in a range of currency denominations. The dashboard also features historical performance data as well as detailed insights …
The slow recovery we expect in home sales over the coming years will be a key factor limiting self-storage demand from returning to pre-pandemic levels. As a result, even though completions will stabilize well below recent peaks, we expect asking rent …
If the Chancellor were to apply National Insurance (NI) tax to rental income in the Autumn Budget, it could further restrain the supply of rental properties and push up rents by more than otherwise. Last week, speculation around property tax changes in …
We suspect the AI-fuelled rally in the S&P 500 has further to run, despite the slightly adverse reaction to Nvidia’s latest results. But even if we’re wrong, we doubt there would be much fall-out beyond the big-tech sectors in the absence of a deep …
We expect non-farm payrolls to have increased by a modest 90,000 in August, as immigration curbs limit labour supply. We expect the unemployment rate to have been unchanged at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings growth likely held steady at 3.9% y/y. …
Estimates from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) suggest that Canadian exporters faced an average tariff rate of just 2.5% in June. Even if that figure understates the bill, as we suspect, firms appear to be benefitting from USMCA exemptions …
China Chart Pack (Aug 25) …
Saudi women’s growing role a reform bright spot Saudi Arabia published its second Women’s Statistics Report this week. It showed that the gender gap in the Kingdom’s labour market is narrowing in almost all sectors. As we noted in an Update this week, …
