UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) The run of softer-than-expected news on CPI inflation and wage growth means we now expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner than before. Our forecast is that rates will be cut from 5.25... 4th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Nov.) Total employment growth in November across our 30 metros was weak compared with the rest of 2023, growing by 0.3% 3m/3m once seasonally-adjusted. On average, office-based jobs contracted for the... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Lending (Nov. 23) The rise in mortgage approvals in November was little surprise given the sharp drop back in mortgage rates since July. Given recent further falls in swap rates, mortgage rates are likely to continue... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Nov. 23) Net lending to commercial property increased for the ninth consecutive month in November, but that wasn’t reflected in investment volumes which dropped further. But throughout H1 2024 we expect... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Nov. 2023) November’s money and credit data suggest that the recent falls in mortgage rates will stimulate new mortgage borrowing, but many existing mortgage holders will still experience higher rates in the... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Is the low saving rate an accounting illusion? Australian household finances are in better shape than the plunge in the household savings rate would suggest. While we still think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than expected over the coming... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update A look back on our key calls for 2023 While SVB’s collapse in March and sharper rises in interest rates led to larger-than-expected falls in commercial real estate (CRE) values, our expectations for sector and regional winners were... 3rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data point to slower wage growth The further decline in job openings to 8.79 million in November, from 8.85 million, was a bit gloomier than expected given that the JOLTS measure had previously dropped below the level implied by the... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) Despite the modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.4 in December, from 46.7, the survey indicates that conditions in the factory sector remain unusually weak and that output is likely to... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the surge in CPI rent inflation It is no secret that strong immigration is pushing up rents but, as rent growth for new tenancies was little changed last year, this does not fully explain the surge in CPI rent inflation. The CPI... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update New interest rate forecast – first cut sooner, end destination is 3% In a change to our previous forecast, we now think that the first interest rate cut from the Bank of England will happen in June this year rather than in November. We still think that interest rates... 3rd January 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Dec. 2023) Mortgage rates dropping below 7% were the catalyst for a marked uptick in mortgage applications for home purchase in December. 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: December CPI and the Fed’s 2024 path back to its 2% inflation target 1704985200 Will inflation continue its retreat into 2024? When will the Fed start easing policy, and by how much will it cut rates over the coming year?
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs suggest soft start for industry in 2024 Although the manufacturing PMIs have overstated the weakness of industry for a while, the big picture from December’s surveys was that global industrial activity was barely growing at the end of 2023... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: 2024 US CRE Outlook – Another year of double-digit value falls 1704904200 We think more pain is in store for US commercial real estate as weak economic growth and high interest rates continue to take their toll.
