US Fed Watch Fed to stand pat With no prospect of the Fed adjusting policy next week, the focus of the FOMC meeting will be the new SEP forecasts. The “dots” are likely to cluster around one or two interest rate cuts this year... 5th June 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Which taxes could rise after the election? Whoever wins the general election on 4th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (May 2024) The decline in mortgage rates in May was not enough to stop home purchase mortgage applications from falling to a three-month low. The chances of a quick turnaround in June currently look slim, as the... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data point to growing labour market slack The April JOLTS data provided further evidence of normalisation, with job openings falling further, layoffs still at historically low levels and the leading indicators all pointing to wage growth... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to a rebound in global industry in Q2 The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry has continued to gather momentum so far in Q2 and that price pressures have increased somewhat. But that probably won’t... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2024) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index in May adds to the sense that the economy is losing momentum, while the drop back in the prices paid index should soothe concerns about a potential renewed rise... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Wage growth will undershoot RBA’s forecasts This year’s minimum wage increase will be a bit smaller than we had anticipated. And with the looser labour market putting downward pressure on wage growth among workers not covered by the minimum... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) While house price growth accelerated rather sharply in May, stretched affordability points to a renewed slowdown. Indeed, most leading indicators point to a renewed moderation in price growth. 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP data unlikely to sway the Bank The weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP data and downward revision to fourth-quarter growth caused markets to price in a higher chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates next week... 31st May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump conviction won't sway the election We doubt that Donald Trump’s New York felony conviction on charges of falsifying business documents will have any significant impact on the presidential election campaign. 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority? With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q1) The 1.7% annualised gain in GDP in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for an above-potential 2.8% increase. With consumption growth looking much stronger than expected... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Apr.) As expected, the PCE deflator data suggest that, although not quite as bad as the first three months of the year, inflation was still running above target in April. At the same time, however, the real... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
