US Employment Report Preview Employment growth reliant on non-cyclical sectors After the near 200,000 gain in payroll employment in November, which included the return of 47,000 workers who had been on strike, we expect a more muted 150,000 increase in December. We also... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Austin and Miami tumble down the apartment rankings We expect apartment markets to perform poorly over the next two years, with all our 17 metros seeing capital values lower at the end of 2025 than they are now. However, there will be substantial... 2nd January 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) We are resending this publication because it was incorrectly sent as an Australia and New Zealand Rapid Response. Australia’s housing market showed signs of life in December. However, we still think... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 23) Unchanged house prices in December ensured that over the course of 2023 they fell by much less than forecasters had expected. With mortgage rates falling, it is increasingly likely that house prices... 29th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Where will new apartment supply fall fastest? We expect the sharpest fall in apartment completions in 2025-26 in Boston, Denver, NYC and Seattle. Those cities will also be joined by Sunbelt markets where oversupply is already denting rents... 28th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all... 28th December 2023 · 0 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 2023 in review While we got mortgage rates and lending roughly right in 2023, house prices fell by less than we expected as longer mortgage terms, strong demand from cash buyers, and tight supply came together to... 28th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Looming manufacturing downturn another headwind Industrial output has usually fallen rather sharply whenever firms were as pessimistic about the production outlook as they are now. That’s consistent with our view that GDP growth next year will be... 28th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Nov. 23) 28th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rapid immigration making the Bank’s job harder Data this week showed that the population jumped by 430,000 in the third quarter alone, almost as much as the official full-year permanent resident target of 465,000. Nonetheless, the November CPI... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed hawks can’t compete with plunging inflation This week saw a renewed attempt from some Fed officials to push back against market expectations for interest rate cuts but, with core PCE inflation running at an annualised pace of below 2% over the... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The confirmation that core PCE prices rose by just 0.06% m/m in November means that, over the past six months, core inflation has been running at an annualised pace of just 1.9%. Adding in the further... 22nd December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The good news on inflation should continue in 2024 It is striking that the big fall in UK CPI inflation so far has followed the US closely, albeit with a six month lag. This reflects the fact there have been common drivers of inflation across advanced... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2023) The 1.3% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November may have paused the recent retail woes as Black Friday discounting provided retailers with some much needed Christmas cheer. But with higher... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
