Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Japan Chart pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth should rebound modestly in the fourth quarter but we expect it will remain soft in 2024... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 23) Even though employment growth remains strong, job creation isn’t fast enough to absorb the surge in the labour force. Accordingly, we expect the unemployment rate to keep rising. 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 23) Declining mortgage rates have already generated a significant improvement in demand, with the new buyer enquiries and sales expectations balances recording their strongest readings for over a year and... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2023) Output slumped anew in Q3, and we suspect it remained in contractionary territory this quarter as well. Accordingly, we think the RBNZ will be cutting rates a lot sooner than it is currently... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed's intransigence typical ahead of a turning point The Fed’s reluctance to acknowledge that it will need to begin cutting its policy rate soon – to prevent a run-up in real rates – was predictable enough based on its intransigence ahead of previous... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Downward trend in mortgage rates unlikely to continue Falls in financial market interest rate expectations mean that mortgage rates will drop to a six-month low in December. That will support a further recovery in housing market activity in the near term... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising arrears not translating into forced sales The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that the high cost of borrowing has continued to price many out of the market and made new BTL investment unattractive. But while arrears are rising... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Contraction in October sets scene for stagnation in 2024 The 0.3% m/m fall in real GDP in October (consensus forecast 0.0%, CE forecast -0.2%) suggests that the economy may go nowhere again in Q4 or perhaps is in the mildest of mild recessions. That may... 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Another fiscal surplus is in sight Today’s budget update showed that the government now expects a balanced budget in 2023/24, as opposed to the modest deficit it had projected a few months ago. With revenue likely to outperform the... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year We suspect that both economies will narrowly avoid a recession but a prolonged period of below-trend growth will reduce price pressures and allow central banks to ease monetary policy again. We’ve... 13th December 2023 · 20 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will end negative rates in January The Bank of Japan is increasingly keen to abolish negative interest rates and we think the most likely venue is the Bank’s January meeting. However, we only expect one interest rate hike to 0.1% as... 12th December 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slightly stronger 0.28% m/m rise in core consumer prices in November suggests the Fed may be able to hang onto its tightening bias for a little longer, but sharper declines in inflation are still... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2023) The sharp fall in wage growth in October will probably further fuel investors’ expectations that interest rates could be cut as soon as the middle of next year and it leaves our forecast for rate cuts... 12th December 2023 · 3 mins read
