US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Apr 20 - May 1) The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting are, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment... 22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What will the July general election mean for the economy? The general election on Thursday 4th July, which the Prime Minister announced today, may usher in a new political era but it is unlikely to lead to a dramatically different economic outlook. The... 22nd May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24) Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Apr. 2024) The drop in existing home sales in April will be followed up by further falls in the coming months, supporting our view that the recovery in transactions we expect this year will be concentrated in... 22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Apr. 2024) April’s public finances figures got the new 2024/25 fiscal year off to a shaky start and cast further doubt on the Chancellor’s ability to unveil big tax cuts at another pre-election fiscal event... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) In response to the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April, we now think that the Bank of England will first cut interest rates in August rather than in June. And the data cast some doubt... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals rate cuts may have to wait Although it left rates unchanged at its meeting today, the RBNZ indicated that interest rates may have to stay higher for longer. However, we think the Bank is overstating the upside risks to the... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We think rate expectations will drive yields down this year Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers over the last few days, we still expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed markets to fall over the next year or so. 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Latest data offer little optimism for apartment rents The latest apartment rent data are consistent with our view that rental growth will be sluggish this year. Although single-family rent growth has fared better, we suspect it will soon start to slow... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2024) The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we... 21st May 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The fourth consecutive 0.1% m/m average increase in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in April will give the Bank confidence that the further easing in core inflation is being... 21st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US shale boom approaching a peak Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
