UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2023 Final) The 0.1% q/q fall in real GDP in Q3 may mean that the mildest of mild recessions started in Q3. But whether or not there is a small recession, the big picture is that we expect real GDP growth to... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian labour market still set to turn Leading indicators suggest that employment growth in Australia is unlikely to slow meaningfully in the near term. However, even if job creation remains resilient, it is unlikely to keep pace with the... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will wait until March before hiking rates Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated this week that the Bank won’t make any policy changes at its upcoming meeting in January as it wants to see the results of next year’s spring wage negotiations... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Shipping disruption unlikely to alter inflation’s course The rerouting of trade ships away from the Red Sea has come at a time of disruption to shipping elsewhere in the world, but it is unlikely to alter the broad pattern of falling core inflation in 2024... 21st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia Housing Watch Although house prices in Melbourne have started to fall anew, we doubt that they are the canary in the coal mine. A persistent shortfall in housing supply should ensure that house prices across most... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Nov. 2023) We doubt November’s public finances figures will prevent the Chancellor from unveiling a further pre-election fiscal splash in the Spring Budget. 21st December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook West coast markets facing another beating in 2024 The performance of the 17 office markets we forecast will continue to be driven by structural factors over the next couple of years. That points to further weakness in the six major markets, where... 20th December 2023 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Nov. 2023) Existing home sales recovered somewhat in November from the 13-year low reached in October, as falling mortgage rates brought more buyers and sellers into the market. That chimes with the pickup in... 20th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Which countries will struggle to shrink fiscal deficits? Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and, for various reasons, most are likely to find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2023) For the second month in a row, the falls in CPI inflation from 4.6% in October to 3.9% in November (consensus forecast 4.4%, CE 4.5%, BoE 4.6%) and services CPI inflation from 6.6% to 6.3% (CE... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How greedy is Australia’s taxman? While the income tax cuts due next year are widely seen as necessary to reverse bracket creep, the income tax burden isn’t particularly onerous by historical standards. However, Australia taxes income... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Investors’ growing expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates in March next year, as well as the recent soft UK wage and inflation data, have convinced investors that the Bank of England... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update US economy unlikely to burst another bubble in equities Although the economic backdrop is likely to be less favourable for the stock market in the US over the next two years than it was in second half of the 1990s, we doubt this will prevent a similar... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
