Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Dec.) November was a weak month all round for housing, with prices falling at a faster pace and starts plunging. Lenders are already cutting mortgage rates in response to the recent drop in bond yields... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and employment Although the flash PMIs ticked up in most cases in December, they suggest that advanced economies will start 2024 on a weak footing. Meanwhile, outside of the US, the subdued outlook for demand seems... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed & markets catching up with inflation reality The Fed’s embrace of interest rate cuts next year is understandable when the latest data suggest that core PCE inflation is rapidly closing in on the 2% target. 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE too hawkish, investors have gone too far the other way We agree with investors that the Bank of England's stance this week was overly hawkish. Even so, we think investors are over-estimating how quickly rates will be cut. Given the UK economy is not as... 15th December 2023 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Another year of double-digit value falls in 2024 Persistent weak growth and elevated (albeit soon-to-be falling) interest rates continue to spell trouble for real estate values. We see NOI growth softening further over the next year as the... 15th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged... 15th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec. 2023) The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 50.7 in November to 51.7 in December, increased the chances of the economy avoiding a contraction in Q4. But the stickiness of price pressures will... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration curbs won’t adversely dent labour supply The ongoing boom in net overseas migration to Australia is helping to take the heat out of the labour market. With public attitudes towards mass migration souring, the government announced this week... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Overheating in services adds to case for tighter policy The Tankan revealed that capacity shortages in the services sector are now just as pronounced as they were before the pandemic. The survey also suggested that inflationary pressures in non... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack Recent falls in Treasury yields have bought mortgage rates back down from a peak of 8% in October to 7% earlier than we had anticipated, setting the scene for a recovery in housing market activity in... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Few signs BoE is starting to contemplate rate cuts The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent soft wage... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The rebound in retail sales in November provides further illustration that the continued rapid decline in inflation is not coming at the cost of significantly weaker economic growth. 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (14 Dec. 2023) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent soft wage... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
