US Employment Report Preview Wage growth to slow despite strong payrolls We expect the February employment report to show that, despite a strong 250,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, wage growth is still on a downward trend. 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024) January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has... 29th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24) 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 24) 29th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 24) 29th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank continues to wait and see The Bank will be relieved to see the broad-based easing in core inflation in January, but is still likely to use its policy statement and press conference next week to emphasise the need for patience... 28th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Energy Update North America electricity trade to grow Although the US’ trade in electricity with Canada and Mexico is small compared to its overall energy trade, it should grow as clean energy capacity rises and grid connections improve. Canada should... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think European equities will keep playing catch-up We expect strong returns from European equities in the next couple of years, but we think they will continue to underperform those in the US. 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up slightly our 10-year Treasury yield forecast We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, our new... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Spring Budget 2024 Checklist This is an updated checklist which takes into account our latest expectations for the Spring Budget. The checklist helps clients keep track of the key policies and forecasts announced during the... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on borrowed time The Reserve Bank of New Zealand handed down another hawkish hold at its meeting today. However, with inflation on track to return to its 1-3% target by mid-year, we still expect the Bank to start... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
