Existing home sales surprised on the upside in October, rising to a 15-year high. However, even with mortgage rates set to stay low, we expect sales will see some retrenchment over the next few months. The one-off jump in demand as some households sought refuge from COVID-19 will soon dissipate and, in any event, there are simply not enough homes on the market for sales to keep growing. We expect sales will have fallen back to around 5.5m annualised by the end of next year.
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