Existing home sales recorded a marginal gain in December but are set to fall back over 2021. Mortgage rates will not decline any further and rising house prices have already reversed the boost to affordability they provided. Record low inventory will also bring sales back toward their pre-COVID trend. Indeed, the pending home sales index has fallen for three months in a row, and we expect existing sales will end 2021 at around 5.7m annualised.
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