In what was an extremely volatile year for the housing market, we made two key forecasting errors. Firstly, we didn’t anticipate the extent of the rise in mortgage rates. Because of that, we underestimated how tight supply in the existing housing market would become due to mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. Second, this meant that while we were correct in our view that existing home sales would be weak in 2023, our house price forecast was too downbeat.
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