Single-family starts edged higher in September to 963,000 annualised from 933,000 in August and building permits also rose to a 15-month high. However, we don’t think this means single-family construction activity has resumed its upward trend. High mortgage rates have led to a collapse in housing demand and homebuilder confidence which has fallen to its lowest level since January. We therefore still expect starts to drop to 900,000 annualised by the end of the year, as homebuilders wait to assess the impact that high mortgage rates will have on demand for new homes.
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