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Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2023)

Another large monthly gain in house prices in September suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outstrip the drag on demand from high mortgage rates. This was a stronger outturn than we expected and challenges our view that the pace of monthly gains will soften over the remainder of the year. Nevertheless, we still expect that to happen given that today’s data are extremely backward-looking and are yet to capture the response in prices to October’s peak in mortgage rates.

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