Does the flatter yield curve signal a recession?
The flattening of the yield curve over the past couple of months is not a signal that a recession is on the way. Instead, it is mainly due to a drop back in the term premium on longer-dated bonds, which could reflect a number of factors, including the continuing net expansion of major central banks’ balance sheets, low and stable inflation or a rebound in global savings.
This Weekly has been sent early ahead of the US holiday. Happy Thanksgiving.