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Has the natural unemployment rate fallen?

A decline in frictional unemployment and shifts in the composition of the labour force, which is now on average older and better educated, mean that the so-called natural unemployment rate has fallen to between 4.0% and 4.5%. That decline in the natural rate would help to explain why wage growth is still a muted 2.5% even with the unemployment rate at a 16-year low of 4.3%.

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